Wintry mix on Christmas Eve in NJ: 6 things to know

It's C-C-Cold!

It is a busy week of holiday travel, last-minute shopping, hollying and jollying. And holy guacamole, it is cold outside!

Temperatures across New Jersey Sunday morning ranged from -8 to 15 degrees, making this our coldest day in almost two years, since February 2023. For the second day in a row, thermometers will likely remain stuck below freezing all day.

It's so cold, I opened my refrigerator this morning to find a polar bear inside, trying to keep warm! (If you recognize my favorite Christmas special that line references, you have earned my utmost respect!)

The good news: New Jersey's cold snap is about to break, as temperatures moderate in the coming days. It is not going to get "warm" per se, but a return to seasonable 40s sure would be nice.

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Timing of Wintry Mix

In addition to the chill, we have been tracking our next storm system, a clipper system that will pass over the Great Lakes early Tuesday morning. It will be close enough to produce a brief period of precipitation over New Jersey.

Of course, Tuesday is ... Christmas Eve.

I estimate the best chance for something falling from the sky will be about 6 a.m. to Noon on Tuesday. Centered on the morning hours. (Note: North Jersey will see early morning snow, while the south and coast will lean more toward the late morning hours.) Any given spot in NJ could experience slick conditions for a few hours, and then clearing skies will take over through the afternoon.

It looks like the precipitation will take the form of mainly snow, especially for northern and inland central New Jersey. Farther south and east, warming temperatures both at the surface and aloft will force more of a wet wintry mix.

Accumulation & Impacts

No "bread and milk" run is necessary for this storm, as accumulations will be light and road impacts will be minor. (Made slightly more serious by the volume of holiday travellers and revellers.)

Up to an inch of snow accumulation is possible. I am being fairly generous with this upper bound of snowfall potential — honestly, a "healthy coating" is the most likely outcome for most of the state. However, we were already surprised by overperforming snow once this week. And temperatures in North Jersey will definitely be cold enough for snow to fall and stick immediately. Just don't be surprised by reduced visibility and a fresh blanket of snow on the ground.

A pocket of freezing rain might be the worst-case scenario here. Forecast models show southwestern New Jersey — the Interstate 295 corridor — to be the most likely culprit for an icy mix of snow and freezing rain. (Remember, freezing rain falls as liquid until it instantly turns to ice upon hitting a cold surface.) Up to a light glaze of ice is possible here, and that is more than enough to make for a surprisingly slippery situation.

Winter Weather Advisory

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Salem, Gloucester, Camden, and northwestern Burlington counties for 5 a.m. to 1 p.m. Tuesday. We will not reach "advisory criteria" for snow accumulation. But because this corner of the state is the most likely to see wintry mix — specifically freezing rain — the advisory provides a formal heads-up to the icing potential.

Even though this is expected to be a minor impact storm, it will not be zero-impact. If you have to travel on Christmas Eve morning, you may want to consider leaving early or late to avoid the chance of slippery weather.

Dreaming of a White Christmas?

Wintry weather on Christmas?! It is rare, but does happen from time to time here in the Garden State.

Here's the problem: There is no official, universally-accepted definition of "White Christmas". There are several possibilities:
—Some folks look for at least one inch of snow on the ground.
—Some (myself included) define it as any snowflakes actually falling on the holiday.
—Some only count snowfall or snow depth conditions on Christmas Day, December 25th.
—Some (including me) would count it as either Eve or Day.

So it is very hard for me to definitively say "Yes, it will be a White Christmas." Or "No it won't." It's really a matter of personal opinion!

There are many areas that still have a healthy coating of snow on the ground from Friday night's storm. Only a few spots will maintain at least an inch through Christmas Eve and Day.

And again, light snow is likely to fall across most of New Jersey on Christmas Eve. So if that fits your personal "White Christmas" definition, make sure you look out the window for the magic to unfold.

The Rest of the Week

Quiet weather resumes for Wednesday, which is Christmas Day and the first night of Hanukkah.

It will be consistently dry and cool through Thursday, Friday, and the final weekend of 2024. Daily high temperatures will reach about 40 degrees, give or take. And we should see a mix of sun and clouds each day.

Guidance hints at our next storm system arriving early next week. Given warming temperatures into the 50s, this would most likely be a rainmaker. But we will deal with that once it gets closer.

Whether you are excited about the Christmas snow or not, I hope you and yours have a wonderful holiday. Be smart, stay safe, and stay warm this week!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.