
Analysis: Trump crashes NJ governor’s race — Will he save or sink Ciattarelli?
🗳️ Jack Ciattarelli scrambles to rally GOP base in final election push
❎ Trump steps in with tele-rallies and Truth Social posts backing Ciattarelli
💸 With unaffiliated voters focused on taxes, GOP faces uphill battle
Ciattarelli Makes Last-Ditch Effort to Rally Republicans
Jack Ciattarelli has been working to shore up his Republican base heading into the final two weeks before Election Day.
Strong Republican turnout is a must if Ciattarelli wants to avoid being a three-time loser in his efforts to capture the governor's seat.
That he feels the need to prop up his base of GOP voters this late in the contest could be seen as a red flag.
Trump Support: A Double-Edged Sword in NJ Politics
President Donald Trump can certainly help him do that and is offering his support whether Ciattarelli wants it or not.
Trump endorsed Ciattarelli in the primary and will reportedly be holding tele-rallies for him before Election Day.
READ MORE: Property taxes loom large ahead of NJ gov race
The president also used his Truth Social platform on Monday to promote Ciattarelli, calling him "A WINNER FOR NEW JERSEY!" Trump said Democrat Mikie Sherrill "is the exact opposite, a stone cold loser."
Given his polarizing nature, Trump's support can be a double-edged sword.
While it is true Trump has the power to motivate his supporters to vote, he can have the opposite effect on those who are not part of the MAGA movement.
Unaffiliated Voters Hold the Key to NJ Election Outcome
Recent polling data has shown Trump's messages and policies are not resonating with independent/unaffiliated voters the way they do with Republican loyalists.
For Ciattarelli, that could be dangerous.
There are still about 850,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey. Only about 25% of voters are registered as Republicans compared to 38% of Democrats. Voters who are not affiliated with any party make up about 35% of all registered voters.
Those voters are the key to a Republican victory in any statewide election. Polls have shown about a third of those unaffiliated voters already lean toward the Democratic candidate, Mikie Sherrill.
READ MORE: ‘Opioid Jack’ killed thousands, Sherrill presses her attack
Property Taxes, Affordability, and the Final Stretch
The most important issues to those who have rejected a party affiliation remain property taxes, affordability, and utility costs.
With early, in-person voting beginning on Oct. 25, the most recent FDU poll indicated only about 3% of likely voters were still undecided.
Polls have also consistently shown Sherrill maintaining a slight lead over Ciattarelli.
Polls do not predict results, but they do show trends, and the trend right now shows Democrats are maintaining a slight advantage.
Can Ciattarelli close the gap and deliver a victory to long-suffering Republicans after nearly eight years of Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat?
It is possible — and maybe Trump's support is what can turn the tide in a close election.
However, if the Democrats maintain control of the Governor's Office in New Jersey, many will point to the Trump factor as a negative that alienated unaffiliated voters and drove them to vote for Sherrill.
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