The Bottom Line

All but one day this week will feature below-normal temperatures. And there is only one limited rain chance over the next week. It's really going to feel like fall, with chilly mornings and cool afternoons. Meanwhile, there's a party in the Atlantic — Paulette is still churning up our surf, the remnants of Sally could bring us some rain showers, and Teddy/Vicky currently pose no imminent threat to the U.S.

Tuesday

Don't be ashamed if you have to grab a jacket Tuesday morning! Thermometers have fallen into the chilly 40s across NW NJ and in parts of the Pine Barrens. Most of the state is in the 50s. As the headline of this post suggests, that's more reminiscent of early October than mid-September.

And it will remain cool throughout Tuesday, with high temperatures only reaching 65 to 70 degrees. It will be dry, with a lightening breeze. And sunny too — although I'm not sure how blue the sky will be. You may have noticed the sun and sky were hazy and milky and washed-out Monday afternoon. That's smoke, stemming from the western wildfires, transported high in our atmosphere. You won't smell smoke and there should not be any air quality issues here in New Jersey, but it is amazing how far those smoke particulates have traveled.

In addition, as of 5 a.m. Tuesday, Hurricane Paulette is currently centered about 800 miles east of New Jersey. The storm is close enough and strong enough to continue churning up the ocean. So a high risk of rough surf and dangerous rip currents continues for all Jersey Shore beaches on Tuesday. That's going to continue for several more days. Please just stay out of the water.

Tuesday night will another clear, crisp, chilly one. Most lows will fall into the lower 50s, with 40s again in the usual cool spots.

Wednesday

More sunshine, although some clouds will build late-day. High temperatures should improve to about 70 to 75 degrees. Still below-normal, but pleasant. Especially with our bone-dry air and weather.

Thursday

The one hiccup of the week. As the remnants of Hurricane Sally pass well south of New Jersey, we'll see some clouds and increased humidity at the very least. (Dew points bump to around 60 — noticeable, but not really steamy or sticky.) It will be the warmest day of the week — relatively speaking — with high temps in the upper 70s or so.

Forecast models still show a few showers creeping into the southern half of NJ at some point Thursday. Don't expect much though — maybe a trace of rainfall. If Sally wiggles farther north, that rain could get a bit more widespread. However, my confidence is growing that raindrops will be very limited here in the Garden State.

Friday

I'll keep a Sally-induced shower chance in the forecast through early Friday morning, just in case. Skies will remain mostly cloudy for a bit too, with a stiff breeze kicking in. We'll also be cooling down again, with fall-like upper 60s on thermometers Friday afternoon.

Saturday and Beyond

The weekend forecast is looking bright, dry, and cool. On Saturday, I'll call it mostly sunny for North Jersey and partly sunny for South Jersey. High temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 60s. Sunshine and 60s again for Sunday.

Long-range models show our weather remaining relatively quiet through the rest of September, with no major storm systems or heat ridges in sight. However, there is one important horizon to watch — the tropics. We are clearly in the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.