Rain? What rain? NJ forecast trends drier and brighter again

The Bottom Line

Wednesday's storm was pretty much a flop. We did see some rain in South Jersey — up to a half-inch was recorded in Cape May. Although I spent the first half of this week downplaying the rain chances, I clearly did not downplay it enough. It is unfortunate we didn't get some wet weather, as all 21 counties of New Jersey are in increasingly dire need of substantial rain.

So with Wednesday's weather playing out differently than expected, I approached Thursday's forecast with a completely fresh set of eyes. So there are some big changes to talk about — specifically, a much warmer day Thursday with a much brighter sky.

I have included a couple of "just in case" slight shower chances for Thursday and Friday, although most of New Jersey stays completely dry again.

The big weather story through the upcoming weekend will be a slow cooling trend. Each successive day will be 3 to 5 degrees cooler than the one before.

That means as fall officially arrives at 8:43 a.m. on Sunday, it may actually start to feel like fall around here.

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Thursday

As of this writing, there is a batch of rain about 50 miles off the Jersey Shore. And that is about where it will stay.

While I can not completely rule out a stray sprinkle clipping the NJ coast at some point Thursday, our weather looks to stay quite dry across the vast majority of New Jersey.

Meanwhile, with a touch of humidity in the air and a blanket of clouds overhead, morning temperatures are starting in the 60s.

It will be a nice, warm day with highs reaching the lower 80s. (Again, this is ~10 degrees warmer than previously forecast.)

Skies will feature mix of sun and clouds. (If I had to guess, I would say it would be heavier on the cloudiness side.)

Even though this coastal storm system's weather impacts on New Jersey have been tame, the ocean and bay are churned up. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until at least Friday afternoon, cautioning of minor to spotty moderate category tidal flooding. And a moderate to high risk of dangerous rip currents will continue for the next few days too.

Thursday night stays quiet and mild, with some clouds overhead. Low temperatures will end up in the 60s.

Friday

That pesky coastal storm system will make one last heave-ho toward the coast on Friday. So once again, I have to include a chance for a quick shower. (I would say Friday's shower chance is a little higher than Thursday's.) It is also going to get breezy along the Jersey Shore, especially late-day.

The rest of Friday looks just fine. High temperatures descend to the upper 70s, under partly sunny skies.

Saturday

The upcoming weekend looks fine. One model — the GFS — paints some rain in the overnight hours between Saturday and Sunday. However, lacking any significant forcing and following along our recent stretch of quiet weather, I have opted to leave raindrops out of my official weekend forecast for now.

The slow descent for both temperatures and humidity levels will continue Saturday. The day is trending partly sunny and seasonable, with high temperatures in the mid 70s. Personally, I love mid 70s — so I am excited about this forecast for the last full day of summer.

Sunday

Some extra clouds build in, compared to Saturday. And thermometers will approach their low point of the week.

I'll call it mostly cloudy. High temperatures should end up just below seasonal normals, in the lower 70s.

The Extended Forecast

Early next week looks pretty autumnlike, with bright skies, crisp mornings, and comfortably dry afternoons. Highs are forecast to only reach about 70 degrees on Monday and Tuesday.

New Jersey's next opportunity for rain will be around the middle of next week. Maybe Wednesday/Thursday — but the way things have been going lately, I would not hang my hat on that storm system forecast until it gets much, much closer.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.