40s and 50s return to NJ, upcoming heavy rain could be problematic

New Jersey's thaw accelerates Wednesday, as we finally climb out of the freezer. Although it is another very cold morning, in the teens and 20s, we will see widespread 40s in the afternoon. A mix of sun and clouds and a relatively light breeze should make for a pleasant December day. Thursday will feature increasing clouds and increasing temperatures, as we inch closer to 50 degrees. The day looks dry, but our next storm system comes into play Thursday night. Friday morning is going to get sloppy, with heavy rain and potential thunderstorms around New Jersey. By midday Friday, we will dry out but also chill out - a brisk wind will cause temperatures to tumble once again.

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Wednesday NJ weather: The thaw is on

After a few days of really cold weather, it is nice to look ahead to more seasonable, more comfortable conditions. For a few days, at least.

Having said that, Wednesday morning is cold again. Most temperatures are starting the day in the 20s across New Jersey.

Highs on Wednesday will reach the 40s across New Jersey. If you still have substantial snow on the ground, that will be the lower 40s — still a bit below normal for this time of year. For the southern coast, where snow has already melted away, we will probably reach into the mid to upper 40s — at or above seasonal normals for mid-December.

Skies will be bright, with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds should stay generally light, out of the southwest. And I am going with a dry forecast.

We should get substantial snowmelt during the day. Just be careful Wednesday night, as temperatures drop below freezing again and all those wet surfaces ice over again. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 20s on average by Thursday morning. (Although there will be some variety on just how cold it gets, based on snow cover and cloud cover.)

Thursday NJ weather: Quiet day, wet night

Thursday's high temperatures will reach into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Alongside the increasing temperatures, we will see increasing clouds.

The daytime hours will remain dry and trouble-free. Our next storm system and chance of rain will not arrive until late at night, probably starting around Midnight.

Friday NJ weather: Heavy rain and mild to start

Friday morning looks wet. This storm has progressively trended wetter and wetter, with the current forecast now calling for about an inch of total rainfall. Peak rainfall intensity is centered right on the Friday morning commute, unfortunately, making for a soggy and potentially slow ride to work. There could be some rumbles of thunder and marginally gusty winds along the way too.

Temperatures will be in the 50s for the duration of the rain. So I want to stress again, there is zero threat of wintry weather here.

Because of the warm rain, I expect a large degree of snowmelt Friday morning too. Combined with the pouring rain, there will be lots of puddles and ponding around.

By midday Friday — let's say 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. — rain will exit New Jersey. And then our next cold air mass will start to work in. You know the drill — a cold, brisk wind will kick up, causing temperatures to tumble. Through the afternoon hours on Friday, thermometers will probably drop from the mid 50s to the 30s. Big difference.

Saturday NJ weather: Back to the chilly side

By Saturday morning, we will be right back in the 20s again, as our brief warmup becomes but a memory. Highs on Saturday will only reach the mid 30s, with a chilly breeze under partly sunny skies.

Sunday will be the nicer day of the weekend, as we actually warm back up into the mid 40s. Again with partial sunshine.

And then 30s probably return for early next week.

Last but not least, let me put on my Snow Grinch hat for a moment, for a special episode of "Beware the Hype". Next week looks a little bit active, with one or two waves expected to ride through New Jersey's atmosphere. And yes, there could be some wintry weather — a bit of snow and ice — right around Christmas. However, there are no guarantees here. Models are completely changing with each and every run. So it is way too early for any details or accurate call. It is just something to watch at this point. And that's it!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.