Nice weather returns to NJ, quick weekend rain, watching the tropics

Friday features a happier weather forecast, as humidity has scaled back and New Jersey almost done with rain chances for now. Expect some clouds, fog, and sprinkles early on, then partly sunny skies and warm temperatures by midday. Most of Saturday looks good too, although there is a chance of rain from Saturday evening through Sunday morning. The other big thing to watch is the tropics. Tropical Storm Humberto and another storm system (likely to become Imelda) will churn up the Atlantic this weekend. While Humberto should turn out to sea, that second weaker system could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast next week. We're still in a holding pattern to see whether New Jersey sees any rain or wind impacts as a result.

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Friday NJ weather: Brighter sky, lower humidity

A cold front swept through New Jersey late Thursday, which managed to kill the worst of our thunderstorm threat and disgusting humidity. So we are already doing better, with brighter skies coming soon.

Friday morning temperatures are in the 60s across almost the entire state. Compared to 70s on Thursday morning, that is much more comfortable and less summer-ish. We are seeing lingering clouds, areas of fog, and sprinkles around to start the day.

By lunchtime, I expect skies to become partly sunny. And temperatures will respond nicely, rising into the lower 80s by Friday afternoon. So, it will turn into a warm and pleasant day. With dew points in the 60s, humidity levels will be better but not exactly "low".

Friday evening looks good for all your nighttime activities. Expect a few clouds overnight and comfortably cool low temperatures in the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday NJ weather: Nice day, wet night

Most of Saturday looks fine, during the daytime hours at least.

With a mix of sun and clouds, high temperatures will settle around 75 to 80 degrees. Just like Friday, we will enjoy moderate humidity levels and a light breeze.

The trouble comes as a disturbance rides into NJ's atmosphere late-day Saturday. Some forecast models do paint showers over southern New Jersey as early as 4 or 5 o'clock. But I still favor a later solution, with first raindrops closer to 10 p.m. This is going to be mainly a nighttime rain event.

There will not be anything heavy or severe here — just a period of wet weather. Everyone in the state could see some rain through the overnight hours, with the steadiest stuff to the south and east.

Sunday NJ weather: Drying out, mostly cloudy

Showers will linger into Sunday morning. But by 10 a.m., dry weather will return.

The rest of Sunday will remain mostly cloudy. Combined with an on-shore northeasterly breeze, temperatures will end up a bit cooler than Saturday, in the lower to mid 70s or so. Not a bad day, once the raindrops exit.

Monday NJ weather: It's all about the tropics

I do not anticipate any inclement or troublesome weather on Monday. The forecast calls for a mix of clouds and sun, dry weather, and high temperatures back in the upper 70s.

It is what happens after Monday that gets tricky. High pressure will try to work in, bringing cooler, drier air back into New Jersey. However, there are a pair of storm systems developing in the tropics that will have at least some impacts on New Jersey.

Newly-upgraded Hurricane Humberto is packing maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. It is forecast to become a major hurricane as it swings a big U-turn around Bermuda. (There are a couple of very weird outlier tracks, but this consensus is fairly high confidence at this point.) The only impact to the U.S. East Coast from Humberto would be rough surf and big waves.

Meanwhile, a separate disturbance over Haiti and Cuba is struggling to get organized, due to a lack of open ocean in that part of the basin. This system — currently designated Invest 94L, and likely to become a tropical storm once winds reach 39 mph — is potentially on a trajectory toward the U.S. coast. The next name on the list is Imelda.

The most likely scenario for that second weaker storm at the moment is for a landfall along the Carolinas as a tropical storm. Let's just get complacent though — even though the storm may not have "hurricane strength" winds, the rainfall and flooding potential will be huge.

The big question is how that relatively weaker storm's track and intensity will be affected by 1.) stronger Humberto and 2.) arriving high pressure from the north. To an extent, both of those factors would help to protect New Jersey from the worst rain and wind impacts.

Honestly, I am breathing a little easier given the latest model guidance here.

Could we see rough surf and coastal flooding and some rain and wind here in New Jersey? Sure, particularly in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.

Am I worried about a worst-case scenario direct hit from a monster storm? No.

Is it worth watching? Absolutely.

Worth freaking out about? Uh, no.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.