Not much has changed since my last weather blog entry on Wednesday morning. There is still a stranded, stuck, stalled storm system to the southwest of New Jersey, which will soak Virginia and North Carolina on Thursday. That system will be rain here to start the Memorial Day Weekend. But there are no washout days, and there's still a lot to like in this weather forecast.

Thursday morning will easily be our coldest morning of the week. Out-the-door temperatures range average 40 degrees across New Jersey — closer to 30 to the northwest, and near 50 degrees along the Jersey Shore. Definitely a "jacket weather" kind of morning.

I'm thinking the northern half of the state will enjoy mostly sunny skies Thursday, with (at least) partial sunshine through southern NJ. Our weather looks dry all day, with lighter winds than the past two days.

High temperatures Thursday afternoon will reach the mid 60s. Such springlike temperatures would be near-normal in late April. But here in late May, I have to call it unseasonably cool. Once again, the Jersey Shore will be the cool spot in the state, thanks to the on-shore breeze. Highs will only reach the upper 50s to around 60 in our coastal communities Thursday.

Speaking of the Shore, a high risk of rip currents and rough surf continues Thursday. Ocean waves have come down slightly, still peaking around 5 to 7 feet.

Thursday night will remain mostly clear and quiet. Look for cool overnight temperatures in the lower 50s.

Friday morning, skies will progress from sun to clouds. High temperatures will rise slightly, into the upper 60s for most of the state. However, remember that "stuck" storm system? It will finally find some traction and start moving again Friday, dragging a batch of rain through New Jersey.

The timing of Friday's raindrops is a bit hazy, depending which model forecast you prefer. Consensus guidance shows first raindrops in SW NJ around midday Friday, spreading through the rest of the state by Friday evening. I believe everyone in the state will see at least a brief period of rain at some point Friday — nothing heavy, sustained, or overly stormy though.

We dive into the Memorial Day Weekend Saturday with additional scattered showers and mostly cloudy skies. But despite the damp, grey conditions, the day won't be a total washout nor a total loss. It will actually feel fairly warm and humid, especially compared to our weather from the last week. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s (NW and coast) to lower 70s (inland).

The forecast turns dry on Sunday, with skies becoming partly sunny. Other than a return to below-normal temperatures, there's not much to complain about here. High temps will be limited to the lower 60s (coast) to upper 60s (inland).

Memorial Day Monday looks about the same, perhaps with some extra sunshine driving slightly warmer temperatures. Still dry, still reasonably pleasant.

If you're looking for another big warmup, there is good news in the extended forecast. Once we get rid of this pesky stalled storm system, and we lose the persistent easterly (on-shore) wind, temperatures will skyrocket. Widespread 70s and even 80s are expected to return around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, only 5 or 6 days away.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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