Unsettled weather for NJ’s first week of fall: Clouds and showers

The Bottom Line

We sure have had a lot of "boring" sunshine lately. Of course, this has been one of the driest Septembers on record for New Jersey. Most of the state is teetering on drought once again.

The forecast for this first week of fall includes some unsettled weather, in the form of clouds and raindrops. Unfortunately, this will not be the kind of drought-busting soaking New Jersey really needs right now.

As it stands now, sunshine and warmer weather will return next weekend. But a tropical system forming in the Gulf of Mexico may ultimately interfere with that clearer weather.

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Monday

As of this writing (7 a.m.), a batch of rain is pushing eastward across Pennsylvania. That will arrive in New Jersey later on — although dry air and high pressure will likely prevent raindrops from dampening the entire state.

Skies will become mostly cloudy early on. And then spotty showers will impact primarily the western edge of New Jersey around the midday and afternoon hours. Rainfall totals will probably reach a tenth of an inch — that is not much at all. And closer to the coast, it will be drier still (or completely dry).

Temperatures are starting the day near 60 degrees. And we will only top out around 70 degrees Monday afternoon. (Realistically, that range is from 65 to 75 degrees.) That is about 5 degrees below normal for late September.

One more important note about the Jersey Shore, which has been under the influence of a persistent on-shore flow since last week. The ocean is still rough, and the back bays are full. So we have a couple more rounds of minor category tidal flooding on the way — a Coastal Flood Advisory continues through at least Monday evening. And a high risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf is posted too — stay out of the ocean.

Any shower activity will pulse down Monday evening, but we will hold on to a blanket of clouds. Low temperatures should dip into the upper 50s overnight. A touch of coolness in the air.

Tuesday

Tuesday's forecast has trended mainly dry. Having said that, I can't rule out a stray sprinkle at some point.

Skies will still be mostly cloudy. And temperatures very similar to Monday, peaking right around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

Honestly, Wednesday could go either way between wet and dry. There is a reasonable chance for showers and thunderstorms developing, especially late-day Wednesday. However, especially given our recent rain chance "fizzles," the possibility of zero rain is a possible scenario too.

Otherwise, Wednesday will be a cloudy day with a stiffer breeze blowing off the ocean. For the third day in a row, I have to quantify high temperatures as being "near 70 degrees". (You can call it uncreative — I prefer consistent.)

Thursday & Beyond

The forecast for the second half of this week is unusually uncertain, due to some tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico.

A cluster of showers off the coast of Honduras is expected to enter the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and intensify into a tropical storm and then a hurricane in the coming days. The next name on the Atlantic basin list this year is Helene. A late-week landfall around the Florida panhandle looks like the most likely scenario.

The question then becomes where future-Helene goes next. Forecast models show pretty good consensus that high pressure will steer the storm over the Central U.S., rather than up the Atlantic Seaboard toward New Jersey. That is not to say that clouds, rain, and tropical moisture are impossible here — it is still a highly uncertain situation. And very important to watch.

So assuming we fall under that consensus "miss" scenario, we would keep clouds but minimal rain chances for Thursday and Friday. And a return to more southerly winds would fuel a warmup, close to 80 degrees. With moderate humidity levels too.

Temperatures potentially fall back closer to 70 over the weekend. But the forecast does look bright and dry for now. Not great for those drought concerns, but good news for all your favorite outdoor autumnal activities.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.