Spadea's roadmap for Ciattarelli: Gotta call Jon

Every public poll continues to show Jack Ciattarelli trailing Mikie Sherrill.

The last 2 polls showed her winning, FDU’s poll had Sherrill ahead by 7, Fox News had Sherrill ahead by 5, even Jack’s own Super PAC released a poll last week that shows him trailing.

So look, any objective observer knows he’s down and with less than 2 weeks left, he needs to make up ground, and fast.

AP Photo/Heather Khalifa

🚨 Can Jack Ciattarelli Still Win the NJ Governor’s Race?

As we continue to call balls and strikes on the election and help outline a roadmap to victory for Jack on November 4th, there's another very obvious move that the GOP nominee can make to close his gap.

One of the the districts that should be in play big time for the top of the ticket is the Union County home district of Senator Jon Bramnick, Legislative District 21.

In order to overcome a polling average deficit of 6-8 points with only 13 days to go, Jack needs to overperform in solid red districts and be competitive in swing districts. LD-21 is an interesting one and one that Jack needs to win.

He's talked a lot about bringing about a GOP majority in the Assembly this year and that can only be done by defeating some incumbent Democrats and re-electing EVERY GOP incumbent, including the two in LD-21.

But this is about the governor’s race, so let’s look at the numbers.

AP Photo/Noah K. Murray

🗳️ Why LD-21 Is the Key Battleground for Ciattarelli

In his second failed run for governor in 2021 Jack underperformed and tied Phil Murphy in Bramnick's district. But listen to this: in that same election year, and with Jack above him on the ballot, Jon was easily re-elected to his seat by 8 points.

In 2023, Jon again easily won his re-election by 6 points.

Just 12 months later, President Trump, who only lost New Jersey by around 6 points, was beaten by Harris in Legislative District 21 by 12 points.

Now the political experts will tell you that it's apples and oranges because in 2023, the State Senate was the top of the ticket and the turnout in the 2024 presidential year was dramatically higher.

But, here's why it matters, regardless of the climate, Jon Bramnick has shown a consistent victory margin over two decades in office as an Assembly leader and as a State Senate.

Put bluntly, Jon knows how to win in the 21st, Jack has shown he doesn't. Even with President Trump's help, the 21st District clearly responds to local, not national influence as is evidenced by the 2024 numbers, so Jon is more important than ever.

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

📞Make the Call, Jack

Now there is no doubt if you've listened to my show for the past few years, or watched any of the GOP primary debates, that Jon and I do not agree on most policy issues.

We have been at odds over the years on many issues from the current AG appointment to spending and tax bills to his voting role in rising insurance costs, and when I was supporting Donald Trump back in 2015, Jon was positioning himself squarely in the Never-Trump space.

But this is not about policy nor ideology. It's about recommending a smart move for the GOP nominee to get more votes than the Democrats on November 4th, and LD-21 plays a huge role in the statewide count, and there is no win in LD-21 without Senator Jon Bramnick.

It's reported that there has been no call from Jack to Jon Bramnick after the June 10th primary where Jon placed third, which is insane.

Jack needs to call Senator Bramnick immediately, if not sooner.

Bramnick has a history of winning and winning big in his home district. Any pathway to victory must include uniting all Republican leaders and leveraging their local influence to turn out the vote for every Republican on the ticket.

Without Jon Bramnick's help, Jack will likely underperform in the 21st leading to a potential loss of GOP seats and a much more difficult path to Drumthwacket.

Make the call today, Jack. Ask Jon how he’s won his district year after year, when you haven’t been able to, and while you're on the phone, ask Jon if he’ll knock doors with you in Westfield or Cranford or wherever Jon tells you to go.

Jon has written the winning playbook Jack needs to be using.