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For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.


The Bottom Line

The numbers are in for the first half of January. And New Jersey temperatures averaged about a degree or two below normal. It feels like it should be a lot lower, given how frigid it has been lately. But the new year started mild, and that affected the overall statistics.

Looking ahead to the second half of the month, things are trending quite cold. New Jersey faces one more cold day of our current steak on Thursday. Then temperatures moderate, as we get a brief break from the chill. But do not get used to it — even colder weather settles in by the end of the weekend.

Meanwhile, there are three storm systems in the forecast. And at least two of them are looking pretty sickly. Meaning impacts in NJ should be minimal, for the most part. Expect up to a coating of snow on Thursday, a splash of rain on Saturday, and then perhaps more impactful snow on Sunday.

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Thursday

It has been a cold week so far, and Thursday morning is right on trend. Most temps are in the teens to start. At least winds have calmed considerably, so I do not have to talk about the dreaded wind chill this time around.

This will be the last day of this cold snap, as high temperatures only reach the lower 30s in the afternoon.

Cold air continues to grip New Jersey Tuesday, but at least the wind will be considerably lighter. (Accuweather)
Cold air continues to grip New Jersey Tuesday, but at least the wind will be considerably lighter. (Accuweather)
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While Thursday will start with sunshine, look for clouds to fill in by late morning.

And then a batch of snow showers will drift in from the west, starting around early afternoon. Mostly scattered, light stuff. (We called it a "flurry plus" on the radio.)

I have two minor concerns. First, if a pocket of "steady snow" develops, it could drive down visibility and cause some headaches on the roads. Second, since the ground is so cold, snow will stick immediately. So we could see a dusting to a coating by the end of the day. "Conversational" accumulations that do not require a shovel or plow.

Snow showers will wrap up by late Thursday evening, at the latest. And then skies will clear overnight. Lows will dip into the mid 20s or so. Typical for this time of year.

Friday

Finally a pleasant weather day. By January standards, at least.

Friday looks good, as chilly air retreats and sunshine returns. (Accuweather)
Friday looks good, as chilly air retreats and sunshine returns. (Accuweather)
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Expect sunny skies, dry weather, and light winds Friday. High temperatures will rebound to around 40 degrees, right on the normal high for mid-January.

And that's it. Good stuff, and a welcome change of pace.

Saturday

Saturday will be the warmest day of the week, as high temperatures push into the mid 40s. I would not even rule out a few 50+ degree readings in South Jersey.

However, our next storm system will roll in around midday. And this one looks to be a rainmaker for most of New Jersey. Once again, it is going to be scattered, light stuff — total rainfall will stay below a quarter-inch. So it's not going to pour, just turn damp and dreary.

There is a chance far northwestern New Jersey — in and around the hills of Sussex County — will be cold enough to see some snow. More accurately, a mix of snow and rain. I do not think accumulations will be an issue, although there could be some slippery spots. Again, this is very much limited — most of New Jersey will just get a little bit wet.

Sunday

I really want to say this weekend's grand finale storm system will be no big deal, producing limited snow in New Jersey at best. That is still the way most model guidance is trending, at least — another win for cold, dry air. However, not every forecast models agrees. So even though it is not the dominant going forecast, I think there is legitimately still a snowy solution on the table for late Sunday. And therefore, it is still worth talking about.

Most of Sunday will be fine, although an arctic front in the morning will send temperatures tumbling again. Under a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures will probably get stuck around the mid 30s at their highest. Back to below normal. Winds will kick up a little bit, but current guidance keeps them below the "breezy" and "windy" ranges.

By late afternoon, a storm system bubbling up from the southwest will try to drive snow into New Jersey. Exactly who sees snow and how much will depend upon the exact storm track here. Right now, the southern coast is the most likely bullseye for up to "a few inches" of snow. But if that track wiggles north just a little bit, this could turn into more of a widespread winter weather event for the Garden State.

A storm system digging south of New Jersey could cause widespread wintry impacts this weekend. (Accuweather)
A storm system digging south of New Jersey could cause widespread wintry impacts this weekend. (Accuweather)
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I am not ready to draw a snow map for New Jersey — primarily because I am skeptical whether over an inch will fall across the majority of the state.

At this point, I will caution that a wintry end to the weekend is possible. And we should all keep a close eye on the forecast as it continues to evolve.

The Extended Forecast

After Sunday night's snow, some of the coldest air New Jersey has seen in years will arrive for next week.

The next arctic blast is going to be a doozy, driving some very cold air down through much of the continental United States. (Accuweather)
The next arctic blast is going to be a doozy, driving some very cold air down through much of the continental United States. (Accuweather)
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Monday's highs will only reach the mid 20s. Monday night is forecast to drop into the widespread single digits, followed by teens in the afternoon. More of the same for Tuesday night into Wednesday, before thermometers finally emerge from the deep freezer.

As the wind blows, the wind chill may dive below zero at times. That is downright "dangerous" cold, when frostbite and hypothermia can occur in a matter of minutes.

Long-range models are hinting at another, more substantial storm system late next week. That is a full 8+ days away from now, so we are only looking at trends — nothing specific. I am concerned that, given the really cold ground and (at thatpoint) rising temperatures, an ice storm event could be brewing there. Let's see how the first three systems play out and how cold it gets next week, and then we'll get a better handle on what's next.

Glossary of NJ winter weather words and phrases

Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow

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