NJ weekend weather: Autumn chill, maybe showers

For this last full weekend of October, Sunday will be warmer than Saturday, but could also feature some light rain in New Jersey.

Saturday

As the autumn leaves continue to fall, some New Jerseyans will experience a frosty start to the weekend. (Photo: Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)

As you probably noticed on Friday, the autumn chill has returned to New Jersey. Saturday morning could bring some patchy frost to parts of the Garden State and, if temperatures fall enough, a light freeze will be possible for the coolest parts of the state.

High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be a couple of degrees cooler than Friday, in the neighborhood of the upper 50s to lower 60s. That still a little bit below normal for late October, but overall it will be a fair-weather fall day. We'll see partly sunny skies overhead, winds will stay light, and the weather will remain dry.

Sunday

Sunday morning should not be as cold as Saturday morning, with low temperatures mostly in the 40s.

One wrinkle for Sunday's weather forecast is an approaching front. That front could fire off some pockets of light rain through much of the morning and early afternoon. Forecast models have been arguing all week as to whether this will be a "morning showers and sprinkles" kind of rain event, or whether the rain will be more persistent through the afternoon. (In either case, rainfall totals should be light, limited to a quarter-inch or less.) It's all about the speed of the approaching front, and the strength and position of any impulses riding along that front. Since this forecast is apt to evolve throughout the weekend, I suggest you keep an eye and ear on the latest forecast both here online and on-the-air.

Following the light rain chance early Sunday, skies will remain mostly cloudy to overcast. Temperatures will be a little bit warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. (The quicker any rain clears out, the warmer it will get.)

Back to Work and School

But don't get used to Sunday's temporary warmup. Remember the aforementioned cold front? Yup, cool air returns to the Garden State just in time for Monday.

Highs on Monday and Tuesday will struggle to make it past 60 degrees. Again, a pair of not-terrible autumn days.

The forecast for the rest of the week will depend heavily on the track of the remnants of Hurricane Patricia, which made landfall over the southwestern Mexico coast on Friday. While this has been the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, it will continue to fall apart rapidly over land. Patricia is expected to "crossover" into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend, before pushing toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.

MORE: Hurricane Patricia slams into the Pacific coast of Mexico

Yes, there are still several model solutions that show the remnants of Patricia heading toward New Jersey through the middle part of next week. But there's absolutely no need to panic... When this system arrives here in the Northeast US, it is just going to be tropical remnants, NOT a hurricane. We absolutely will not have to worry about "feet" of rain and 200 mph winds.

However... My perpetual mantra is to never underestimate the depth of tropical moisture ... And so we may ultimately have to deal with some pockets of moderate to heavy rain next week. The exact timing is still in question, but it looks like Wednesday or Thursday could be the wet day. It is still too early to pin down this forecast any further, so please continue to monitor the forecast carefully.

Have a great weekend!

Dan Zarrow is the Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.