Rain becomes NJ’s biggest coastal storm impact Sunday into Monday

The Bottom Line

Coastal storm day two. Although Sunday will be a bit different than Saturday, as our big focus and the top concern has shifted a bit. Yes, we are still worried about one more extra-high high tide cycle. And winds will kick up a notch for a few hours late Sunday morning. But I think rain becomes New Jersey's #1 coastal storm impact going forward.

Steady to heavy rain has been falling across most of New Jersey for several hours Sunday morning. We will catch a lull in rain and wind through the afternoon. And then one more batch of heavy stuff comes in Sunday night. This storm will not leave us alone until midday Monday.

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Sunday's impacts headlines for NJ's nor'easter. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)

By the Numbers

—Rainfall... An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible from Sunday through Monday, with the greatest totals coming in two spurts Sunday morning and Sunday evening. Widespread flash flooding and river flooding is not expected, although ponding, poor visibility, and localized flooding issues are absolutely likely.

—Wind... Widespread 40+ mph gusts Sunday morning through midday, before calming down for good. Still the risk for downed branches and power outages, due to wind-weakened and rain-weakened trees and ground.

—Coastal Flooding... About 2 feet of storm surge causing Moderate flooding at high tide Sunday morning. 1 to 2 feet of surge causing Minor flooding at high tide Sunday evening. (Localized Moderate possible for some back bays and tidal waterways.) About 1 foot of surge causing Minor (or localized minimal) flooding at high tide Monday morning. And then tide levels should subside enough that widespread flooding is no longer an issue for the Jersey Shore.

—Rough Surf... Expect 6 to 10 foot breaking waves at the beaches on Sunday, with a high risk of dangerous rip currents.. Dropping to 2 to 4 feet on Monday, with a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents. From there, the surf will continue slowly settling — but it will take a while before things really calm down.

Storm Timeline

—Sunday Morning... A band of steady to heavy rain will continue soaking mainly the southern half of New Jersey, with scattered rain farther north. Wind speeds will briefly increase by late morning, as the center of the coastal storm approaches, with widespread gusts of 40+ mph. For portions of inland New Jersey, this could actually be the windiest part of the storm. One more round of nail-biting moderate category coastal flooding will take place along the Jersey Shore, peaking around 8 a.m. on the oceanfront and closer to Noon for back bays.

—Sunday Afternoon... Once again, we will catch a bit of a lull in rainfall. Wind gusts will lighten up a bit too. It won't be a "nice" day, but it will be less stormy and less "dangerous". Temperatures will rise into the lower 60s.

—Sunday Evening... Rain likely surges again, this time with the axis of steadiest stuff over central and northern New Jersey. Wind really dials back, with gusts around 20-30 mph. High tide levels are expected to stay in the minor category for most spots. (Back bays still retaining and stockpiling water from earlier in the week may still touch moderate flood stage.)

—Monday Morning... Still raining. But as the storm pulls away and continues to lose steam, we will be down to just scattered showers. It will be a breezy, cloudy day with temperatures again stuck in the 60s.

—Monday Afternoon... We finally dry out, statewide, around early afternoon. Skies will clear into Monday night, leading to a beautiful stretch of midweek weather.

Warnings and Advisories

A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for the entire Jersey Shore until 8 p.m. Sunday. (At that point, it will likely convert to a less severe advisory as tide levels continue to drop.)

A High Wind Warning is in effect for coastal Ocean and coastal Monmouth counties only until Noon, calling for gusts to 60 mph. The rest of the state falls under a Wind Advisory until Noon, calling for gusts to 45 mph.

A High Surf Advisory continues for another day too.

The Extended Forecast

After the storm, partial sunshine breaks out for Tuesday and beyond. That will allow high temperatures to push into the 70s. In fact, we might even flirt with 80 degrees by Thursday and Friday.

A quick shower is possible as a cold front arrives on Friday. And then a more substantial cluster of rain is showing up in long-range forecast models for next Sunday into Monday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.