Hey NJ, maybe we should ‘hype up’ thunderstorms just like snow

Thunderstorms are Serious Business

The past few weeks have featured some wild weather here in New Jersey.

On July 1, up to 5 inches of rain soaked parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties, sparking the state's first round of flooding this month.

July 2 was a severe thunderstorm day, with widespread wind and heavy rain. Unfortunately, three deaths were reported due to trees falling on vehicles in Plainfield and North Plainfield.

A golfer in Hardyston, Sussex County was struck by lightning as a thunderstorm approached on July 8. He later passed away on July 14.

On July 10, parts of South Jersey recorded 4+ inches of rain, sparking flooding in Salem, Atlantic, and Ocean counties.

On July 14, a round of super-soaker thunderstorms dumped a half-foot of rain over Union and Somerset counties, leading to dramatic flooding of the Route 22 corridor and two fatalities in Plainfield.

And on July 16, tragedy hit an archery range in Jackson Township when a lightning bolt from a distant thunderstorm struck, killing one and injuring 13 others.

Thunderstorms are a part of life in New Jersey in the summertime. This is our monsoon season. July is, on average, New Jersey's wettest month of the year. August is ranked second wettest. And June is third. It is supposed to rain and storm a lot this time of year.

Frequently, summertime heat and humidity will fuel even more intense storms, which means we need to ring alarm bells for flash flooding and gusty winds and constant lightning and hail and tornadoes. And it seems like every time that happens, some New Jerseyans are in complete shock — as if dangerous severe weather never happens here.

Did you know that flooding is the No. 1 cause of thunderstorm-related deaths in the United States? Overall, it is the second greatest cause of weather-related deaths, behind only heat.

Unfortunately, a majority of those deaths were likely preventable if people just didn't travel and stayed home during flooding thunderstorms.

I also want to point that flooding deaths in particular are four times higher than winter storm deaths.

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Yet, here in New Jersey, we treat snowstorms with an incredible sense of hype and urgency. Blizzards, snow squalls, and nor'easters all receive a certain reverence. States of emergency are declared for flurries. Roads are brined, schools are closed, workers stay home. Bread and milk supplies are depleted at local stores.

When a snow day is declared, everyone prioritizes safety over braving the elements.

So ... Why don't we play it safe and shut down the state on severe thunderstorm days too?

On Second Thought

Actually ... That question is completely rhetorical, a complete exaggeration and wholly unrealistic.

(Also, for the record, I don't hype any of my forecasts — over my 19-year career, I believe my audience has come to respect and embrace my honest, straightforward forecasting philosophy.)

I can think of three major differences between snowstorms and thunderstorms:

1.) Thunderstorms are small. They are what is known as a "mesoscale" weather phenomenon, occurring on a scale of "a few miles," sometimes affecting one town or county at a time. But a winter storm — especially a powerful nor'easter (coastal storm system) — is on the "synoptic scale," hundreds of miles wide. A storm that affects all of New Jersey warrants much more serious action than one that is more scattered about. And because local convective storms are spottier, they are much harder to accurately pinpoint and forecast.

2.) Timing is vastly different. A snowstorm may affect the state for an entire day, with lingering impacts for up to a week. Despite the severe impacts, a thunderstorm could last for just a few minutes in any given spot.

3.) Flooding and thunderstorms can occur any time. Major snowstorms only happen in New Jersey between about November and March. But thunderstorms can — and have — occurred in every month of the year.

Can you imagine what would happen if state government shutdowns, preemptive travel bans, school closings/delays, and business closures happened every time thunderstorms were in the forecast? We would never leave the house! It would be Pandemic v2.0!

A More Realistic Solution

Obviously, there is a middle ground between "total shock" and "total shutdown" on thunderstorm days. I offer three suggestions for New Jersey:

1.) Personal Responsibility... You have to pay attention to the daily weather forecast. You have to take thunderstorm and flooding threats seriously. And you have to think about your own outdoor and traveling plans carefully when severe weather is expected. No one is going to do that for you. Consider backup plans and/or alternate driving routes. If it feels right — and especially if a watch or warning is issued — you should not hesitate to play it safe and use hazardous weather as an excuse for cancelling an activity or hitting the road early/late.

2.) Cancel Things for High Risk Days... I think there is a case to be made for local and state officials, school leaders, and business owners to shut down or close early on days with particularly high thunderstorm risk. I'm talking about days where widespread flash flooding is likely during the evening commute. Or when a tropical storm is passing by. Or when a full-on tornado outbreak is expected. Things that only happen a couple times a year, at the most. And only when the atmosphere is really angry, and the danger is especially high.

3.) Know It's Not Going to Get Better... Severe weather and flooding are not going away. Whether or not you subscribe to the accepted reasons that storms are becoming stronger and more frequent in a warmer climate, they are clearly not going away any time soon. You can hope and pray for drought, but that comes with dire consequences of its own. (Please don't actually do that.) All we can do is improve our forecasting and communication skills, and adapt to emergent weather threats.

By the way, I am always striving to evolve the way I forecast the weather and especially the way I present critical storm information to my audience, both on-air and online. I have some things in the pipeline that will do just that in the coming months. Your feedback is important, so if you have any comments or constructive criticism, please don't hesitate to reach out before, during, or after any storm.

Eyes on the sky and be safe out there!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Check out Dan's weather blog or follow him on Facebook for your latest weather forecast updates.