‘Broken record’ forecast: Sun and clouds, spot storms, warming temps

Lather, rinse, repeat... A slow-moving weather pattern will keep New Jersey's weather consistently warm and somewhat unsettled this week.

I gauge how beautiful a summer weekend is by the Jersey Shore beaches. When both Sandy Hook and Island Beach State Park close due to capacity, the weather is officially beautiful in my book. We have more decent, summery weather for the week ahead — but not quite perfect.

Monday morning is wonderfully comfortable, with temperatures in the 60s for most of the state — that's about as good as it gets around here in mid-July. High temperatures on Monday will be very similar to Sunday's — mid 80s inland, cooler along the coast.

As a trough very slowly presses east, we'll likely see a few popup thunderstorms from Monday afternoon through Monday evening. I believe most of New Jersey will stay dry on Monday (and for most of the week, in fact). While there could be a brief downpour, the richest river of atmospheric moisture will stay well off the coast. The Storm Prediction Center has put NW NJ in a "marginal risk" for severe weather, which would include a marginal gusty wind or marginal hailstones.

The bottom line? It's going to feel like summer. Seasonable temperatures, reasonable humidity, and spotty thundershowers.

Copy and paste Monday's forecast to Tuesday. Then slightly decrease the storm chance to "isolated" and increase temperatures. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s statewide.

Copy and paste Tuesday's forecast to Wednesday. Then increase temperatures and humidity. High temperatures will be even warmer, close to 90 degrees away from the ocean.

And it's going to be downright hot by Thursday. With sun and clouds (again) and a spot shower or thunderstorm possible (again), high temperatures will spike into the lower 90s.

Friday looks mostly sunny, breezy, and hot with widespread 90s on thermometers once again. It is wholly possible that part of the Garden State experiences a heat wave (3 consecutive days of 90+ degrees) on Wednesday-Thursday-Friday.

The jury is still out for the weekend. It looks like New Jersey will be under the influence of a cold front for Saturday, as temps decrease to the 80s. There will be clouds, and probably rain at some point. Sunday could see some rain too, before hotter temperatures return. Again, there's still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the weekend, so I don't want to put specific numbers on the forecast just yet.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.