‘Warm wave’ day 4 of 8 for NJ: Record temps possible this weekend

The Bottom Line

'Indian Summer' is usually a 'thing' here in New Jersey. It seems temperatures cook in November and December, sometime after the first widespread frost of the year.

This stretch is particularly unusual though, both because of how high temperatures will go and how long it will last. A cold front is expected to sweep across New Jersey late-day Monday, which will knock temperatures back to seasonable levels. Until then, 60s and 70s will be the rule every day.

Meanwhile, the forecast contains very limited chances of rain for the next week.

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Thursday

Temperatures to start Thursday morning are colder than forecast — likely due to drier air and clearer skies than expected. You'll probably be reaching for a jacket. Temps range from 30s northwest to 40s for most to 50s along the coast.

There is a bank of scattered clouds and patchy fog parked over South Jersey. But by late morning, sunshine and blue skies should take over.

It is going to be a beautiful day all around. Technically, the coolest of the week. However, thermometers will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Look for highs between about 65 and 70 degrees Thursday afternoon. Winds will be light, the air will be comfortable. Just fantastic.

You'll find a few clouds and a chill in the air Thursday night. Lows will average upper 40s by Friday morning. Again, don't be scared to grab a sweatshirt or jacket.

Friday

Getting warmer. Highs will push into the lower 70s. I think we'll see spectacular sunshine for most of the day, although we may go "partly sunny" later on.

Saturday

The first weekend of November will feel more like typical September weather.

Highs will push into the mid 70s on Saturday, with a mix of sun and clouds. You'll even feel increased humidity in the air, as dew points push into the 60s. While a few models show a sprinkle chance over New Jersey, I'm keeping the forecast bone-dry.

Sunday

Cloud cover will be thicker on Sunday. And I think we could see an isolated shower or two, especially early and late.

Neither of those factors will affect temperatures though. Highs will reach the mid to (maybe) upper 70s. Record highs will be in jeopardy. (They're in the upper 70s to around 80 these days.)

Monday & Beyond

Monday will be a transition day, as a cold front pushes across New Jersey in the afternoon and evening hours. However, it will still be a warm day. Perhaps the warmest of the bunch, with 80 degrees in place for inland South Jersey.

Additionally, that frontal boundary looks moisture-starved. While I wouldn't rule out a few spot showers, the day should be mainly dry. It will turn breezy and cooler behind the front, as a new air mass moves in.

By Tuesday and Wednesday next week, temperatures will become more seasonable. (i.e. More typical of early to mid November.) HIghs will be closer to 60 than 80.

Long-range models show another front with some healthy rain arriving around Friday of next week. The subsequent cooldown will be quite a shock to the system. Approaching the midpoint of November, I think we'll enter a stretch of notably below normal temperatures. Morning freezes, and highs only in the 40s perhaps?

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.