The Bottom Line

The mainly quiet, mild weather rolls right along. There will be some subtle day-to-day changes and temperature swings through the rest of the workweek. Even some sporadic raindrops to talk about.

Our long-range weather forecast will get more interesting. Our next chance of widespread rain will arrive this weekend. And then models are showing a storm system signal for early next week that could turn wintry.

Tuesday

If you liked Monday, you'll be happy with Tuesday's forecast too. We actually had a weak cold front pass through New Jersey overnight. That will enact two very minor changes to our weather on Tuesday:
1.) A few clouds overhead.
2.) A subtle wind direction shift, from southwesterly to northerly.

Both of those factors will cause temperatures to end up a degree or two cooler than Monday. I'll still put high temps in the lower 50s. We'll stay dry all day, with light winds and very dry air.

Tuesday night stays quiet. Partly cloudy and mid 30s, on average.

Wednesday

Clouds roll in. And unfortunately, starting Wednesday, it looks like we'll have more than 50% cloud cover for a week straight.

Even though skies will become mostly cloudy, it should still be a mild day. High temperatures will reach the lower to mid 50s. It may "feel" cooler than Monday and Tuesday, as skies will be less bright and blue.

As a warm front lifts through New Jersey Wednesday afternoon and evening, we could see some raindrops. Just some sprinkles and light showers, totaling less than a tenth of an inch. There is zero risk of wintry weather.

It is worth mentioning that the impending surge of warmer and more humid air will prevent temperatures from falling more than a few degrees Wednesday night. Lows in the 40s.

Thursday

The warmest day of the week. Highs in the lower to mid 60s will be pushing 15+ degrees above seasonal normals. But again, it won't be a perfect day. You'll see lots of clouds overhead. And a stiff southwesterly breeze will be present too.

The arrival of a weak cold front Thursday evening could spark a rain shower. Models show this front to be pretty moisture-starved, leading to minimal (if any) rainfall in the Garden State.

Friday

Here's where the temperature forecast gets especially tricky. The aforementioned cold front is expected to stall somewhere in the neighborhood of New Jersey. Remember the definition of a front: the boundary between two air masses. So it's wholly possible that North Jersey ends up cooler-than normal while South Jersey stays warmer-than-normal for another day.

I think Friday stays dry, although skies will be mostly cloudy. Temperatures may start to gently fall as the day goes on, again depending on the wiggle of that front.

The Weekend & Beyond

If that front is still in the area this weekend — and I expect it will be — our weather will turn wet. Periods of rain are possible from Friday night through Saturday, as a series of storm systems follows along the cold front "highway" through New Jersey. I don't think Saturday will be a washout, but it does look grey and damp at the moment.

Worst-case scenario, precipitation lingers into Sunday as cold air returns. Some model guidance — the GFS in particular — shows some mixing and/or straight snow on the backside of this thing, especially in North Jersey. Significant accumulations and/or travel issues are doubtful, but the wintry possibility is worth keeping in mind.

And finally, the long-range forecast. This time of year, we're always scanning the horizon for any hint of a storm system signal. And we've got one, in the Monday-Tuesday time frame. Six to seven days out, forecast confidence is extremely low — this thing could completely disappear. So let's stay calm and hype-free here. Having said that, the potential for a coastal storm and accumulating snow to start the Christmas holiday week? Ehhh, that's worth watching! We'll keep you posted.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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