Rain, glorious rain — wet weather timeline and totals for NJ

The Bottom Line

OK, look. I know the last couple weeks of gorgeous weather have been amazing. But we do need to get serious about the growing need for rain in the Garden State.

For the first time in a while, you will probably be reaching for the umbrella on Wednesday as inclement, unsettled weather returns.

This storm system forecast has been a royal pain this week, and the latest models do not help at all.

This may be a "tale of two Jerseys" kind of day. Southern and coastal New Jersey look mainly wet. Meanwhile, northwestern New Jersey may stay mainly dry.

There is still a threat for some downpours along the way, with tropical moisture in the vicinity. Or they could set up just a few miles off-shore. My usual advice holds: Stay alert to changing weather conditions, be smart, and play it safe.

As low pressure lingers over the Atlantic through the end of the workweek, additional showers are possible (if not likely). I am hopeful — fingers crossed — that we will dry out and partially clear out just in time for the weekend.

Get our free mobile app

Wednesday

The day's first batches of rain arrived early Wednesday morning. And we will continue to see pockets of rain through the morning and afternoon hours. Mainly light, scattered stuff.

But here's problem #1. Model guidance shows a huge range of potential rainfall total scenarios. Varying from hardly anything to upwards of 5 inches. I am still leaning away from that heaviest" tropical deluge" solution — but it is worth keeping the downpour potential in the back of our minds. Especially for southern and coastal New Jersey. Especially between Wednesday's late afternoon and early evening hours.

There are some coastal issues too. A high risk of rip currents is posted for the Jersey Shore once again, with ocean waves up to four feet. Coastal flood advisories are posted too, cautioning of minor category tidal flooding.

Amidst the scattered pockets of rain pushing through the state, skies will stay cloudy, the air will feel somewhat humid and clammy, and temperatures will be cooler than the past several days. Look for highs in the lower 70s. Where rain is most prominent, thermometers may be stuck in the 60s all day.

So not a pleasant day, but not a washout. And we will take every raindrop we can get.

Rain will taper off eventually Wednesday night. Low temperatures will dip into the 60s.

Thursday

Here's problem #2. Our storm system is going to redevelop and stall over the Atlantic Ocean, just east of New Jersey. That will keep abundant clouds in place. And a few showers will probably be "spit" toward the coast on Thursday. Best chance would be in the "PM" hours.

Most of New Jersey has a good shot at staying dry on Thursday. It will be mostly cloudy and breezy, with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Friday

One more truly unsettled day.

Model guidance shows a resurgence of spotty showers around midday Friday. This time, the entire eastern half of New Jersey could be in play. I have seen hints at some pockets of moderate to heavy rain, although I do not think Friday will end up being as wet as Wednesday overall.

Because of the clouds and raindrops, Friday's highs will only make it to the lower 70s for most. (However, away from the rainy area in SW NJ, breaks of sun could push temps closer to 80.)

The Weekend & Beyond

I have high hopes that drier, clearer weather prevails for the weekend. Having said that, I can't rule out a shower — especially on Saturday, especially along the coast.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds through the weekend. Temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover and rain coverage. But I think we will see widespread 70s on Saturday. Highs will end up closer to the 70-degree mark on Sunday.

And that is about where temperatures will stay next week, topping out around 70 degrees, just below seasonal normals. It will be an appropriate taste of fall — the Autumnal Equinox officially arrives at 8:43 a.m. Sunday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.