Pleasant trio of days ahead for New Jersey
Did you see a thunderstorm on Tuesday? As expected, about a half-dozen discrete storm cells popped up late-day. A few spots got drenched, while most of the state remained dry.
We have a stretch of almost completely dry weather over the next three days. And, even though temperatures will generally be held below seasonal normals, I believe it's going to be quite pleasant.
I am usually a "trend-caster". In other words, when I sit down in the weather center each morning to craft a new forecast, I use the previous day's forecast as a starting point. If the models go sunnier or cloudier, cooler or warmer, wetter or drier, etc. I can more easily reflect that in my public prediction.
For Wednesday, I've trended my forecast sunnier and slightly warmer (by a few degrees). While I had previously promoted a mostly cloudy day, satellite trends suggest we might see more sun than clouds for much of the day. (No complaints there!) So, rather than keeping temperatures "limited to the 60s," I'm calling it "around 70 degrees" instead. The Jersey Shore will likely see 60s Wednesday afternoon.
So it's going to be a pretty good weather day. I just can't ignore the multiple models that suggest a few sprinkles over the Garden State Wednesday evening — just before sunset, if they pop up at all. Most of the day and most of the state will enjoy (another) dry day.
Wednesday night will feature a few clouds overhead, and more comfortable temperatures. Thermometers will bottom out in the mid 50s (give or take) by Thursday morning.
For several days, I've been calling Thursday the nicest day of the week. And I still stand by that claim! With solid breaks of sun, passing clouds, a light southerly breeze, dry weather, and high temperatures in the 70s, it should be incredibly pleasant all day long.
Friday will get noticeably warmer and more humid. High temperatures will cook into the lower to mid 80s away from the coast. (Look for 70s along the Jersey Shore.) Clouds will increase as the day goes on, and we'll eventually see a chance for showers creep into New Jersey. I'm becoming increasing confident, however, that any raindrops will hold off until Friday night (8 p.m. or later).
And then along comes the weekend. Sigh. Another complicated, unsettled, and pretty wet forecast, I'm afraid.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday, starting in the northern and central parts of the state and drifting south by Saturday afternoon. The heaviest, steadiest rain of the weekend is currently forecast to arrive in the Saturday night to early Sunday morning time frame. (In other words, overnight.) Additional showers and storms are likely throughout the first half of Sunday, with one more shot at a dry stretch of weather Sunday afternoon.
As high pressure builds in next week, we should start the new workweek with sunny skies and seasonable temperatures near 80 degrees.