NJ weather: About six more days of blue skies and 80° temperatures

The Bottom Line

Remember last September? It was the start of a miserable fall season, with rain almost every weekend. Including a couple doses of tropical rainfall. Yuck.

This September is the exact opposite. Beautiful weather as far as the eye can see, with very few hiccups. And there are no surprises in the forecast, as completely dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures carry through the upcoming weekend and beyond.

There will be some subtle changes along the way, including the introduction of an on-shore breeze, a slight increase in humidity, and a warming trend. Plus, the end of this dry streak next week is somewhat concerning, with tropical rainfall a possibility.

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Wednesday

The only substantial change compared to Tuesday will be a shift in wind direction, from northwesterly to southeasterly. That is an on-shore breeze — it will be light, but just enough to make the Jersey Shore the coolest spot in the state in the coming days.

Wednesday is starting off with 50s on the temperature map. There have been some pockets of fog overnight, especially in the southern half of the state.

New Jersey will enjoy another mainly sunny, dry, pleasant day. Humidity stays low and winds will be light. Look for inland high temperatures reaching about 80 degrees. East of the Parkway, that on-shore breeze will keep thermometers in the 70s.

Wednesday evening should be beautiful, calm, and quiet. Expect a few clouds and possibly some patchy fog. Low temperatures will be comfortably cool, in the upper 50s to around 60.

Thursday

One important element in Thursday's forecast: Slightly higher humidity. That will add some stickiness to the air. It will also make overnights a bit warmer through the rest of the week.

Once again, we will be under the influence of a light southeasterly breeze on Thursday. So once again, coastal communities will top out in the lower to mid 70s. Inland areas will be back to around 80 degrees.

I think we will see a few more clouds overhead. But Thursday will still be a terrific day overall.

Friday

Clouds and humidity will tick up a bit more on Friday, partially due to the remnants of Hurricane Francine over the middle of the country. (No worries — NJ faces no rain, wind, or surf difficulties from this storm.)

You'll find sun to the northeast on Friday, and a layer of high clouds to the southwest. It will definitely be warm, with inland highs in the lower 80s. Our first trip into "above normal temperatures" territory since the first of the month.

Saturday

Saturday will probably be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Feeling like mid-summer! Especially with humidity levels likely in the "moderate" category.

We should see lots of sunshine on Saturday. And again, there is zero chance of rain. Perfect weather for outdoor activities. And I suspect Jersey Shore beaches will be busy — while although keep in mind, most of them do not have lifeguards here in the off-season.

Sunday

Temperatures will come down slightly on Sunday, with some clouds in play and a more easterly wind. We'll still hit about 80 degrees away from the oceanfront.

The Extended Forecast

Monday stays quiet and dry, with increasing clouds and highs again near 80.

And then our weather potentially turns interesting. Both the GFS and European long-range models show a tropical system pushing into the southeastern United States at the tail-end of the weekend. That moisture and energy would potentially reach New Jersey in the late Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.

There are still multiple scenarios on the table — especially since it is unclear whether that storm will be a full-blown tropical storm, or just a cluster of showers. It may soak up some of Francine's remnant moisture, which could introduce pockets of heavy rain. As it stands now, I would say multiple inches of rain are possible for the middle of next week, but not a guarantee.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is right now. So the fact this dry stretch may end with tropical rainfall does not surprise me one bit. We will stay on top of this potentially significant storm as it approaches.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.