More rain, more flooding: Debby takes aim at NJ later this week

The Bottom Line

What a night, what a mess. As expected, some big thunderstorms and intense downpours swept through New Jersey from Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. Top rainfall totals across the state were over 4 inches, with numerous reports of flooding, downed trees, and power outages.

Things are much calmer as of Wednesday morning. And our flooding and severe weather concerns dial back for both Wednesday and Thursday. Both days will be cloudy, showery, and unsettled, with temperatures going nowhere.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby has hardly moved in the last day, still hovering off the Georgia-South Carolina coast. That puts the center about 550 miles southwest of Cape May, N.J.

There is good news and bad news about New Jersey's Debby forecast. The storm is speeding up. That means New Jersey's big push of rain and wind is set to arrive sooner and leave faster.

Additionally, the storm track has shifted farther west, farther inland. That will theoretically keep the heaviest swath of rain away from New Jersey, meaning we can lean away from the scary worst-case scenario. However, being on the "other" side of the storm has disadvantages — namely the threat for a bit of coastal wind, storm surge, and tornadoes.

Let's dig into the latest timeline and rundown of storm impacts, so you know what to expect. Sunshine is only 72 hours away!

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Wednesday & Thursday: Unsettled

Our weather will not be pretty. But at least the heavy rain threat pauses for a couple days.

Wednesday will be cloudy, humid, and relatively cool. Temperatures will be stuck in the lower 70s all day.

There will be a few showers and sprinkles around throughout the day. Maybe even a localized downpour, dumping a quick inch of rain somewhere in the state.

Humidity may actually dial back slightly through Wednesday night, allowing temperatures to dip into the 60s. That almost qualifies as comfortable, especially in mid-summer.

More of the same unsettled weather on Thursday. Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms, lots of clouds, and highs limited to the mid 70s.

Friday: Debby Day Timeline

The threat of flooding and severe weather increases again on Friday, as Debby prepares to make its closest pass to New Jersey as a post-tropical depression.

I think Friday's weather will feature pockets of rain through the morning and afternoon hours. With some downpours and embedded strong thunderstorms along the way.

In between those raindrops, we might catch a peek of sun. And it is going to be a warm and humid day, as high temperatures push into the lower-mid 80s.

Then, the brunt of the storm arrives. As I mentioned above, the latest storm track keeps Debby's center west of New Jersey. That keeps the heaviest rain west of us too. I think we will still a band of torrential rain slide through the Garden State. If I had to pinpoint it, I would guess between 6 p.m. and Midnight Friday. (Although keep in mind, there is still plenty of time for that time frame to "wiggle" in either direction.)

Wind speeds will increase late Friday too.

Friday: Storm Impacts

—Rainfall... Everyone in the state could see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain between Wednesday and Saturday morning. Where it really pours, totals are forecast to end up in the 2 to 4 inch range.

—Wind... Top gusts will probably climax around 35 mph Friday evening. Farther inland, it will be just above the "breezy" category, around 25 mph.

—Storm Surge... Coastal flooding is not expected to be a huge factor in New Jersey from Debby. But up to a foot of surge could spark a round or two of minor category flooding.

—Tornadoes... Possible. This might be the "sleeper element" of this storm, especially since the eastern side of a tropical cyclone is traditionally the most tornadic sector. The chance for a spin-up is strictly limited to "Debby Day" on Friday.

—Humidity... High. It is going to be soupy and feel downright ... tropical ... especially on Friday.

Saturday & Beyond: Gorgeous

If all goes well, rain should exit New Jersey early Saturday morning. I supposed some drips and drops could linger through about mid-morning.

But in general, we are looking at a much clearer, drier, nicer forecast for the upcoming weekend.

On Saturday, the sun comes out, the wind calms down, and humidity drops a lot. High temperatures should settle in the lower 80s.

Sunday's forecast includes a mix of sun and clouds, and highs again in the lower 80s.

There are no significant storm systems on the horizon. Other than sporadic showers and thunderstorms, we will enter another stretch of mainly dry, quiet weather next week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.