Great weather to start the weekend, but more rain is on the way
New Jersey will be in a pleasant slice of the atmosphere for most of Friday and Saturday, but wet weather may return as early as Sunday afternoon.
Nothing makes me happier than a bright, sunny, warm-but-not-too-hot day like Thursday! High temperatures averaged 80 degrees across the state, with a delightful breeze and abundant sunshine. Nice way to start the month of June!
Friday looks pretty good too, with some subtle differences. We're starting off with clear skies. And some cool temperatures too — while most of the state is in the 50s, in isolated spots where the air is extra still, thermometers have fallen into the 40s. Fair-weather clouds will build in Friday afternoon, and a brisk wind will kick up to about 25 mph at times. High temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler than Thursday, in the mid to upper 70s. We may very well hit 80 degrees once again in South Jersey. Nice.
The big change for Friday will be the chance for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Fueled by a weak front, any showers that develop will have to battle a pretty dry atmosphere. So raindrops are not quite a sure bet. (The NAM model, in fact, shows a dry solution.) Hopefully it won't get in your way too much, especially since any showers will be limited to a narrow window of time — between about 3 p.m. and 9 p.m.
The rest of Friday night will be partly cloudy, quiet, calm, pleasant, and comfortable. Overnight low temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 50s. (Scattered 40s are possible again in the coolest spots.)
Saturday is looking good. Maybe a little cool to qualify as "beach weather," with high temperatures forecast in the lower to mid 70s. But with a pleasant mix of sun and clouds and a manageable breeze, it should be a very nice early June day. My only hesitation is that I can't rule out a stray shower at some point.
I still maintain that most of Sunday looks fine — that's a slight downgrade from "good". High temperatures will be a bit cooler, especially along the coast, as our wind comes off the ocean. Our latest forecast calls for thermometers reaching the lower to mid 70s across most of New Jersey.
Clouds will increase Sunday morning, ahead of our next storm system which will push closer to the Garden State Sunday afternoon. Once again, the NAM model is the dry outlier, showing little to no rainfall on Sunday. That's a bit surprising, given the latest model trends. Don't get me wrong, I'd love a dry and mild weekend — I'm just skeptical whether such a solution will play out.
If it does rain, I think the onset will hold off until Sunday mid-afternoon at the earliest. If there's a period of steady rain, it would come later on, from Sunday evening through Sunday night.
And then along comes next week. It is my duty to inform you that more unsettled, wet and cool weather is on the way. Ugh.
Monday will remain mild, with highs in the 70s, despite mostly cloudy skies and a chance for afternoon showers.
As a storm system gets "stuck" just off the Jersey Shore, clouds will win the sky, a brisk northeast wind will blow off the ocean, and persistently pesky showers will line the forecast. The latest guidance suggests Monday will remain mild, with highs in the 70s. But we look to turn much cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday (at least) with highs mostly in the 60s (maybe some 50s too).