Bright and breezy start to the week, rainy coastal storm later this week for NJ

The Bottom Line

We begin the new week with a November-ish feel to the air, with a coastal storm looming toward the end of the week. Monday will feature sun with passing clouds, and possibly a quick shower clipping through northern and central New Jersey. Just like this weekend, it will be quite breezy and seasonably cool, with temperatures rising from the 40s in the morning to near 60 degrees in the afternoon. Tuesday will be a hair warmer and Wednesday will stay dry and pleasant. Our next storm system is set to arrive sometime Thursday. And there is resounding evidence to suggest this will be solely a rainmaker for the vast majority — if not all — of New Jersey. There were some forecast model runs over the weekend suggesting snow potential. While I suppose that is something we will have to watch as this forecast evolves, the air and the ground look too warm and the storm track is just not conducive to wintry weather for New Jersey at this point. Expect a period of cold, uncomfortable rain Thursday, with inclement weather potentially lingering into Friday and Saturday too.

Weather Hazards

Wind gusts may touch 30 mph Monday. Blustery and obnoxiously cool, but not damaging or dangerous.

The big thing to watch this week is the coastal storm set to arrive Thursday. There has been a lot of hype and hysteria swirling around the winter weather potential. And we will have to watch for some snowfall in the higher-elevation areas of northwestern New Jersey, if the storm track is right. But for now, heavy rain looks to be the bigger concern. Rainfall totals may exceed an inch, depending on how hard and how long it rains.

We may also have to be on the lookout for spots of coastal flooding at high tide, again depending on the exact track and orientation of the storm.

Climatological Context

November 9 is the 313th day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 57 to 59 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 38 to 41 degrees.

November is, on average, New Jersey’s fifth coolest, second driest, and sixth snowiest month of the year.

Monday

I am back from a week-long vacation, and the weather feels appropriate for the sentiment, so let me just say ... Welcome to November, New Jersey!

Temperatures are mainly in the 40s Monday morning, which really is not unusual at this point of the season. Normal lows right now — based on long-term averages — are right around 40 degrees. So chilly mornings and jacket weather are pretty much the norm going forward.

Monday brings us two potential weather nuisances: a few raindrops and a stiff breeze.

A batch of spotty showers is diving through New York and Pennsylvania as I type. And some of those raindrops may survive long enough to clip northern and central New Jersey through about midday. That will amount to nothing more than a brief increase in cloud cover or a quick sprinkle.

Otherwise, Monday will be bookended by sunshine and dry weather.

Expect sun with passing clouds, high temperatures between 55 and 60 degrees, and a persistent breeze. Gusts could approach 30 mph at times, which will probably keep the jacket or sweatshirt in play even during the afternoon.

That is blustery and perhaps a bit obnoxious, but not dangerous.

Monday night will calm down, with partly cloudy skies and seasonably chilly lows around 40 degrees.

Tuesday

Tuesday's forecast trends a little sunnier and a little warmer.

Expect mostly sunny skies across New Jersey, with high temperatures climbing into the lower 60s.

That will put thermometers a few degrees above Monday’s levels while continuing the general theme of pleasant, seasonable November weather. It will likely be the warmest day of the week.

However, the breeze will kick up again, so it will not necessarily feel as mild as the raw thermometer suggests. But there are no rain concerns, nor any significant weather problems.

Wednesday

Wednesday is a transition day. But still reasonably pleasant, and less breezy than earlier in the week.

The morning should begin with sunshine before clouds gradually increase as our next storm system approaches. The entire day will stay dry though.

High temperatures will make it to around 60 degrees, keeping New Jersey close to normal for this point in November.

Thursday

Thursday is when the forecast turns downhill, as a coastal storm system approaches.

Over the weekend, this storm really fired up the winter weather hype machine! And with some good reason behind it, as one or two forecast model runs painted some healthy snow accumulation over New Jersey. But have you ever seen a 7-day snow forecast that actually played out? I certainly haven't. We play these things out slowly and carefully, especially in the iffy transitory shoulder seasons.

Bottom line: At this point, with no subfreezing temperatures in sight, the overall setup points much more convincingly toward rain. The wet, liquid, non-frozen kind.

On Thursday, skies will turn cloudy. And a period of steady rain will move into New Jersey at some point — but the timeline is still very much in question, depending on the track and speed of the storm system.

High temperatures on Thursday will only reach the upper 50s at best. Friday and Saturday may get stuck in the 40s, with a continuing chance of showers for at least part of each day. So this will have the potential to become one of those cold, raw, uncomfortable November rain events.

Some of the rain could become heavy at times. Rainfall totals may even exceed an inch, depending on the exact storm track, timing, and duration. That could eventually lead to big puddles, poor drainage, and some localized flooding issues.

Coastal flooding may become a concern too if the storm’s orientation and wind direction favor pushing water toward the Jersey Shore.

As for snow: I would not completely erase the possibility of some flakes in the higher terrain of northwestern New Jersey. But the storm track is unfavorable, the air mass looks too warm, the ground is too warm for substantial winter weather across the overwhelming majority of the state.

So ignore the hype and stay grounded in reality. The headline at this point is not snow — it's rain.

There is still plenty to figure out and fine tune as the storm gets closer. But it's pretty clear this coastal storm will be New Jersey’s big weather story of the week. Stay tuned!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.