NJ weather: Turning wet, stormy, raw, and colder

The Bottom Line

A coastal storm system will make for occasionally wet weather across New Jersey over the next 36 hours or so, bringing a raw end to the workweek. An early batch of showers will exit North Jersey Thursday morning. And then rain will really fire up Thursday afternoon and evening. This will be the "brunt" of the storm, with pockets of steady to heavy stuff, and probably some rumbles of thunder. Unfortunately, the potential for downpours will coincide with the Thursday evening commute. The threat for scattered rain will continue Thursday night and Friday too. Meanwhile, temperatures will sink into the 40s, making it feel raw and quite uncomfortable. Friday morning, higher elevation areas along and north of Interstate 80 could see some snowflakes. But given the warm, wet ground, little to no accumulation is expected. Rain should exit by late Friday afternoon, yielding a dry weekend with clearing skies. But temperatures will remain on the chilly side, feeling December-ish through early next week.

Weather Hazards

The only official alert on the map is a Coastal Flood Advisory for Ocean County. Tide levels are expected to crest just above flood stage Thursday morning. But that is enough to cause some minor water inundation issues in particularly vulnerable spots along the Jersey Shore.

Pockets of heavy rain could cause low visibility, slick conditions, and ponding on roadways through Thursday evening's commutes.

While the first snowflakes of the season may fall in higher elevation areas of North Jersey on Friday morning, little to no accumulation is expected.

Climatological Context

November 12 is the 316th day of 2026

Normal highs: 56 to 58

Normal lows: 37 to 40

November is, on average, New Jersey's 5th coolest, 2nd driest, and 6th snowiest month of the year.

Thursday Morning

As expected, an early batch of rain showers pushed through mainly northern New Jersey early Thursday morning. A few more raindrops are possible as the day goes on, but we'll generally catch a quiet lull through the rest of the morning, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies and temperatures rising from about 50 to 60 degrees.

The morning high tide cycle is forecast to reach a few inches above flood stage in a few places along the Jersey Shore, owing to a stiff on-shore breeze. This is not a catastrophic "head for the hills" situation — just a heads up.

Thursday Afternoon & Evening

By early afternoon, our storm system will draw closer and get more organized, so pockets of rain will really start to fire up statewide. Those pockets of rain could be steady to heavy at times, with rumbles of thunder possible. Keep in mind, the risk of ponding and flooding will be even greater if storm drains are blocked by leaves. (And streets may be even slicker due to wet leaf cover too.)

There is also a slight risk for some strong to severe thunderstorm cells too. Gusty winds are possible. And maybe even an isolated tornado — again the overall risk is low, but non-zero.

Unfortunately, the "brunt" of the storm, with the heaviest rain and stormiest weather, is expected to coincide with the Thursday evening commute.

Thursday Night

Rainfall intensity should dial back by late Thursday evening. Overnight temperatures will fall into the lower 40s. Well above the freezing mark. But definitely cool enough to add a "raw" feel to the air as showers continue to stream through the Garden State.

Friday Morning

Friday morning, things may get a little bit interesting in North Jersey. And by interesting, I mean a little bit wintry. Although again, I want to stress this is not the primary impact of this storm system and most of New Jersey will see only plain rain for the duration.

Some forecast models have trended snowier in the higher elevation areas north of Interstate 80. However, I still think the ground will be too wet and too warm for any real accumulation or travel impacts to occur. Still, first snowflakes of the year? Probably.

For the rest of the state, expect cold, clammy on-and-off light rain to continue.

Friday Afternoon

Really not a nice day. Scattered rain will remain possible until about mid to late afternoon, when our area of low pressure is expected to be far enough off-shore for rain to exit.

Temperatures will go nowhere on Friday, only advancing into the mid 40s at best. That is chilly — likely our coldest day since late March. And making those raindrops even more uncomfortable.

The Weekend & Beyond

The weekend turns dry. But the cold air is here to stay for a while.

Expect slowly clearing skies on Saturday. It will be somewhat breezy and blustery. And high temperatures will once again get stuck in the mid 40s. That is about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year — adding a definite December-ish feel to the air.

Sunday will improve to around 50 degrees, with a mix of sun and clouds. Better, but still unseasonably cool.

The latest long-term model guidance keeps next week quiet, mostly sunny, and cool to start. Highs will be in the 50s. By midweek, we should be in the mid 50s, which is actually seasonable (near-normal for this time of year).

Our next chance of any significant, inclement weather likely won't come along until just before Thanksgiving. As to whether that will snarl any pre-holiday plans, we will have to wait to see the exact timing, intensity, and precipitation type involved.

NJ WEATHER CENTER: Check the 5 Day Forecast