Election Day in New Jersey could go for Trump

New Jersey has not voted for a Republican President since 1988 when George H. W. Bush. He's the first one for those of you too young to remember. That's thirty-six years ago for those of you who are too lazy to do the math.

The world was much different then. No internet or cell phones or social media and cable news was in its infancy, with CNN the only player. Since that time, New Jersey has been solidly blue and has not gone for a Republican for president.

Donald Trump is not your typical Republican and he's certainly not your typical politician. No one has been able to polarize as much or galvanize as well as Trump. If you believe the polls, he doesn't have a chance in New Jersey, but polls have been wildly off in recent elections, especially when it comes to Donald Trump.

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There's the "shy Trump" effect, where people are afraid to say out loud to anyone that they'll vote for him due to the overwhelming demonization in the media, academia and society in general.

Monmouth County, which is considered a Republican majority county, has the lead in early voting of its members by a margin of 21,000 voters over Democrats of the 130,000 early votes cast already. That's according to Monmouth County Republican Chairman and Sheriff Shaun Golden.

Don't forget that there are more blue counties than red of our 21 counties by a 13 to 8 margin. My county of Burlington is considered blue, but we are inundated with Trump signs everywhere.

Can anecdotal evidence be any indication of what the outcome will be in New Jersey? What might be better than the polls are the betting markets. Traders on crypto-based Polymarket, the largest prediction market, saw Trump as having a 58.1% chance of taking back the White House as of Monday afternoon, compared to Harris' 41.9%.

On the U.S.-based platform Kalshi, traders saw Trump with a 55% chance of victory, to Harris' 45%.

There's no indication of what New Jersey voters will be betting on, but if I were to put my money on it, I would not bet that Trump will win New Jersey. It just hasn't trended that way in the past. But this is a strange time and a very strange election year, with a Democratic candidate installed late in the game while winning no votes in a primary.

There are too many variables to make a solid prediction on which one will take New Jersey, but there is room for an upset this time.

Opinions expressed in the post above are those of New Jersey 101.5 talk show host Dennis Malloy only.

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