Flood Watch: Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain for NJ’s first full day of summer

The Bottom Line

Happy first full day of summer! As we enjoy about 15 hours of daylight, we are staring down an active weather pattern across New Jersey. Two rounds of rain are expected Monday: Spotty rain from morning through midday, mainly to the north. Then the main event will be strong thunderstorms with potentially heavy rain from late afternoon through the evening hours. Severe weather, including damaging winds and even a tornado, plus flash flooding, will be possible. Our weather will start to settle down Tuesday, leading to pleasant conditions through the middle of the week.

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Weather Hazards

With 70 percent of New Jersey in "Severe Drought," we do need a good soaking. But too much rain too quickly can be bad too, of course.

A Flood Watch has been issued for all or part of 15 New Jersey counties from Monday afternoon through late Monday night. Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2 inches are possible where the heaviest downpours develop, which could lead to flooding of low-lying roads and poor-drainage areas. Never attempt to drive, walk, or swim through flooded areas.

The other concern is for strong to severe thunderstorms developing starting around 3 p.m. As heat, humidity, and a few breaks of sunshine destabilize and field the atmosphere, conditions will become favorable for nasty storms. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe weather threat should diminish after sunset.

Climatological Context

June 22 is the 173rd day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 83 to 84 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 62 to 66 degrees.

June is, on average, New Jersey's third warmest and third wettest month of the year.

Monday

The first full day of summer begins with temperatures mainly in the 60s, with just a hint of humidity in the air.

As a cluster of rain enters from Pennsylvania, spotty showers will be possible over New Jersey through the morning and midday hours. This rainfall should be relatively light and uneventful, aside from some rumbles of thunder.

The middle of the day will be mostly cloudy, breezy, and increasingly humid. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s (north) to the mid 80s (south).

The bigger concern arrives later. From late afternoon through Monday evening, a stronger line of thunderstorms is expected to sweep across the Garden State. This is when severe weather becomes possible, with damaging wind gusts, torrential rain, dangerous lightning, and even an isolated tornado all on the table. It is also the period when flooding concerns will be greatest. If you have outdoor plans or an evening commute, stay alert to changing weather conditions and take any thunderstorm threat seriously.

Storms should pulse down after sunset and then exit after midnight. The overnight hours will remain warm and sticky, with lows in the upper 60s.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be a quieter weather day. Having said that, a few lingering showers are possible at some point, mainly along the coast.

Clouds will gradually break for sunshine during the afternoon, as drier air begins filtering into the state.

High temperatures will reach about 75 and 80 degrees. Fairly comfortable, although still a touch humid.

Wednesday

Wednesday looks like the pick of the week.

Expect mostly sunny skies, lower humidity, and afternoon temperatures between 80 and 85 degrees. It will be a welcome return to classic early summer weather with no significant concerns.

Thursday & Beyond

Thursday also looks good, with a mix of sun and clouds and warm highs in the mid 80s. Humidity should remain manageable.

Our next chance for unsettled, inclement weather looks to be Friday. The current forecast shows a chance for showers and thunderstorms both early and late on Friday. We will see how that call continues to evolve, and put a finer timeline on potential rain chances as the week goes on.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.