Let's recap this flip-flopping week so far. Sunday was rainy. Monday was sunny. Tuesday was rainy. Wednesday was sunny. It's time to break the pattern, as we get to enjoy a second sunny day in a row Thursday! But as I've been hinting all week, another storm system and another batch of rain is aiming for New Jersey this weekend.

There is definitely an autumn chill in the air on this Thursday morning. Parts of Sussex and Warren counties have experienced a light freeze, with a few temperatures near 30 degrees. Most of New Jersey is starting out in the upper 30s to lower 40s — firmly in jacket weather territory. And along the Jersey Shore, temps are nearer to 50.

Our atmosphere is bone-dry right now, which has contributed to the chilly AM temperatures. Of course, dry air also means we'll warm up quickly after sunrise. Thursday's weather and temperatures will be very similar to Wednesday's, with one exception — lighter winds. Sunny and dry, with highs in the mid 60s. Another lovely fall day!

Still nothing to talk about for Thursday night. It will be mostly clear and cool, with lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Changes will begin Friday morning, as skies across New Jersey become mostly cloudy. Short-range models show a few isolated showers and patchy drizzle moving through the state at some point. It's one of those situations where I think it's fair to call the day mainly dry, but I don't want to rule out a few raindrops (especially late-day).

High temperatures on Friday will turn slightly cooler, in the lower to mid 60s.

The weekend forecast is becoming clearer, as models show some semblance of a consensus in the timing of our next storm system. However, I have to leave some wiggle room and uncertainty in the rain timeline I'm about to lay out for you.

If you have things to do outdoors this weekend, your best shot at staying rain-free will be Saturday morning. We'll see a mix of clouds and sun. High temperatures will end up slightly below normal, near the 60-degree mark.

As we get into the second half of Saturday, rain chances will start to ramp up. As a warm front approaches, the GFS model shows raindrops creeping into New Jersey around 2 p.m. Saturday afternoon. But that's the earliest solution among all model guidance — I would not be surprised if much of NJ stays dry through Saturday night.

On Sunday, however, it looks like everyone in the state will get wet. The best chance for periods of steady rain will be the first half of the day, through midday Sunday. There's a chance we break into dry weather Sunday afternoon, but I wouldn't count on weather conditions improving too much.

Despite the clouds, a stiff breeze, and the rain, Sunday will actually warm up. High temps could reach 70 degrees in South Jersey by the end of the weekend.

Hopefully we get a break in the wet weather on Monday, and we could even see extended pops of sunshine. Depending on the exact position of the aforementioned front, high temperatures should remain on the warm side of normal, near 70 degrees.

The forecast gets muddy again through the middle of next week. Once again, we suffer from timing difficulties between the GFS and Euro models. If you believe the GFS, we get wet on Tuesday, followed by a big cooldown just in time for Mischief Night (Wednesday) and Halloween (Thursday). The Euro is slower, bringing rain Wednesday-Thursday and prolonging the big cooldown until November 1st (Friday).

No matter which model wins, that cooldown is going to be pretty stark. It looks like we'll be facing widespread morning frosts (at least) with afternoon temperatures barely hitting the 50s for the first few days of November. Brrr!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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