
Why hurricane forecast maps for NJ will be more colorful in 2024
Another summer, another hurricane season. And this year, the tropical Atlantic is expected to become very active, due to abnormally warm ocean waters and a transition to La Niña conditions.
When a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the Atlantic basin, the responsibility for tracking it, naming it, and forecasting it falls to the National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
For each storm that develops, the NHC offers a suite of maps, and graphics to depict current conditions and the latest forecast. They are generally updated every 3 to 6 hours, as new data and insight becomes available. You will often see those images embedded in my weather blog posts.
Out with the Old
The most useful hurricane graphic produced by the National Hurricane Center is their "Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone Graphic". I'm sure you have seen it before:
There is a lot of information plotted in that one little picture:
—Current status of the storm: Classification, Wind Speed, Pressure
—Current position of the storm and movement
—Current extent of tropical storm and hurricane force winds
—Most likely track of the center of the storm and its intensity
—The "cone of uncertainty" representing where the storm's center might veer
—Watches and warnings issued for coastal areas ahead of the storm's arrival
In with the New
Starting in August 2024, the National Hurricane Center will be making one tweak to their tropical forecast maps.
As it stands now, they only show tropical storm watches, hurricane watches, tropical storm warnings, and hurricane warnings along the affected coastline. It is basically a point-to-point painted line to show where such alerts have been issued.
Going forward, they will color in all counties — coastal or inland — that fall under such a warning. The ultimate goal is to make it clear exactly who should take precautions against an impending storm's wind, rain, and storm surge threats.
There are some other minor adjustments being made to the graphic to accommodate for the colorful addition. For one, the entire "cone of uncertainty" will now appear in semi-transparent white.
The new map will be deemed "experimental" to start, as NHC collects feedback from stakeholders, the public, and its own staff.
Other Changes for 2024
The hurricane center has also announced a suite of minor operational changes for this season. Of particular relevance to New Jerseyans are:
1.) More advisories and text products from the NHC will be available in Spanish language.
2.) Watches and warnings can now be issued at "intermediate" update times (8am, 2pm, 8pm, 2am) in addition to "full" update package release times (5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm).
3.) Annual adjustment to the width of the "cone of uncertainty" based on historical forecast track error.
The complete list of names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Check out Dan's weather blog or follow him on Facebook for your latest weather forecast updates.
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