Wet Wednesday for NJ: Steadiest rain south, heaviest afternoon

The Bottom Line

It really was not that long ago that we were incredibly concerned about drought impacts and high wildfire danger.

Then spring came along. And we have been waterlogged ever since.

Yet another storm system will produce yet another rainy day across New Jersey on Wednesday. It is not necessarily a total washout — South Jersey will be considerably wetter than North Jersey. But it is another day to grab the rain gear and get ready to splash in puddles.

There are two notable changes to the forecast as of my latest update:

1.) Raising rainfall estimates for South Jersey — likely well surpassing an inch in the bucket by Wednesday night.

2.) Pushing the "brunt" of this storm system, the period of heaviest and most widespread rain, later — to the afternoon and early evening hours.

We will get a break from the damp, dreary, cool weather on Thursday. But showers and thunderstorms will return late week. And could impact part of your weekend plans.

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Wednesday

As of this writing (7 a.m.), it is not raining everyone in the state. South Jersey is definitely wet, and has been for several hours. Central New Jersey is damp. And North Jersey is ... nothing yet. Rain has been slow to advance from southwest to northeast. But eventually, everyone in the state will get wet Wednesday.

So overall, it is another inclement, wet weather day. In addition to periods of rain and drizzle, you will find thick clouds, a stiff breeze at times, and temperatures going nowhere. Highs will only reach the upper 50s to around 60 degrees Wednesday afternoon. (Admittedly that is better than our last "miserably soggy day" last week, when some temps were stuck in the 40s.)

As I mentioned, the steadiest rain in the state will be found in South Jersey. And the heaviest rain will come this afternoon, possibly lingering into the evening hours.

Eventually Wednesday night, rain will dial back, as dry air invades from southwest to northeast. Low temperatures will only dip a few degrees overnight, into the mid 50s.

Thursday

There is a good chance that some showers and/or misty drizzle will linger through Thursday morning's rush hour. But Thursday will feature improving conditions and mainly dry weather.

I am optimistic we will see peeks of sunshine by Thursday afternoon. And watch temperatures soar as a result, right back into the lower 70s. A northeasterly (on-shore) breeze will keep Shore towns a bit cooler. But it will be a calm and reasonably pleasant day overall.

Friday

Friday is a mixed weather day. We will see lower to mid 70s. But also a few waves of rain.

Skies will turn mostly cloudy on Friday. And I think approximately two waves of scattered showers and thunderstorms will roll through. One in the midday to afternoon hours. And one late at night.

There are some uncertainties here, regarding the exact track of those scattered (broken apart) areas of rain. And whether pockets of sunshine could warm and destabilize the atmosphere, leading to stronger, more impactful storms.

Models are leaning toward a round of heavier rainstorms Friday night. But again, scattered — not necessarily for everyone.

Friday will be an "eyes on the sky" kind of situation. You will probably see rain at some point. But it will not be an all day thing this time around.

Saturday

On Saturday, we will still be in an unsettled slice of the atmosphere, with a cold front set to arrive late. That means a few more showers and thunderstorms may pop. And once again, I could see those storm cells blossoming into efficient little downpours.

Unfortunately, that means you may have to keep your Saturday plans as flexible as possible, as occasional raindrops could interfere with outdoor activities.

High temperatures on Saturday should end up around 70 degrees. There is a lot of "give and take" uncertainty in that number — I could see us swinging cooler or warmer, depending on the spread of rain and the timing of that cold front. We will see how things continue to develop.

By late Saturday afternoon, the rain chance will fall away. And we should enjoy a quiet, pleasant, cool evening. (Perfect for a campfire, perhaps?)

Sunday & Beyond

June begins Sunday. And almost like flicking a light switch, our weather pattern switches to quiet, calm, and (eventually) warmer.

Sunday looks mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler than normal. Morning lows in the 40s, afternoon highs in the upper 60s or so.

A warming trend will kick in next week, pushing highs into the 70s on Monday and Tuesday. Then probably into the 80s by midweek.

The chance of a daily popup shower is not zero next week. But with high pressure in control, we will finally break out of the pattern of constant storm systems and batches of rain. June can be one of the most fabulous weather months of the year — let's see if we get a winner this year!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.