Storm passes south of NJ — limited snow and frigid temps

The Bottom Line

It's cold. You knew that, of course. Wednesday will be day 2 of 3 in the freezer. By my math, it is one of the top ten coldest days of the season.

We are still watching a storm system passing south of New Jersey. Snow is possible here, but it will be very limited. The southern edge of the state could pick up a coating to an inch, but that is about it.

Following one more frigid day and one more widespread batch of snow showers on Thursday, we will finally see some improvements to our weather picture. This is really the first time I have been able to say that in weeks.

The warmup begins on Friday, with 40s set to return this weekend. Thermometers are forecast to reach the 50s by the middle of next week.

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Wednesday

Bundle up!

Wednesday morning temperatures have bottomed out mainly in the teens. At least winds are relatively light, especially compared to the last few days. That means I do not have to talk about the dreaded wind chill. (Although any time the breeze blows, it is going to bite.)

While Tuesday featured lots of sunshine and blue skies, abundant cloud cover will build into New Jersey by Wednesday afternoon. That will make it look and feel more wintry.

High temperatures will only reach about 30 degrees. That is about 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

For the past week, we have been closely watching the development of a storm system and potential nor'easter. A week ago, it looked like quite a snowy situation for New Jersey. But the big dome of cold, dry air is going to win out, keeping heavy snow hundreds of miles to our south.

Having said that, some light snow is possible right along the southern tip of New Jersey from Wednesday late afternoon through late evening. I will even say up to an inch of accumulation is possible. Especially around Cape May County. Maybe creeping as far north as Cumberland and Atlantic counties. And that is about it.

Otherwise, Wednesday night will be cloudy, calm, and very cold. Look for low temperatures again primarily in the teens.

Thursday

One more frozen February day, featuring a slightly better chance for widespread snowflakes.

High temperatures will once again hit about 30 degrees. We may catch a glimmer of sun early on, then skies will stay pretty cloudy.

One final piece of energy will ride across New Jersey from west to east Thursday afternoon. And, despite working against some very dry air, that could spark a round of spotty snow showers across all sectors of the state.

I could even see a quick coating up to an inch of accumulation on the ground in spots, just because it is so cold.

One Thursday night rolls around, the snow shower chance diminishes. Skies will start to clear after Midnight.

Friday

Finally, temperatures will rise above freezing on Friday. But not by much — high temperatures will push into the mid 30s.

Friday will be a bright and sunny day. However, we will have to contend with a brisk breeze for at least the first half of the day, probably gusting over 20 mph.

Saturday & Sunday

Happier weather ahead!

Saturday almost looks like a nice day. Temperatures will come up just shy of normal, unfortunately. Expect sunshine and highs around 40.

Sunday will be even better. With a mix of sun and clouds, highs will reach the seasonable mid 40s.

The Extended Forecast

The warmup continues into next week, reaching the mid 40s on Monday and potentially lower 50s degrees on Tuesday.

There will be some shower chances around early next week too. I would say mainly rain at this point, although if the timing coincides with an overnight, some snow is possible too. Even if such a colder scenario plays out, I doubt accumulations are going to become an issue.

Both the GFS and European show a more significant storm signal late next week. And in my mind, all I can think is "Here we go again!" If that signal stays consistent and temperatures are cold enough, you may start to hear about potential snow accumulations. But there's no way that chance will be worth more than a casual mention until early next week. Ignore the hype — we will keep you posted, as always!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.