Rain has come and gone, much colder air now knocking on NJ’s door

The Bottom Line

Rain, glorious rain! It is a damp morning across New Jersey, and it feels wonderful. For the first time in almost a month and a half, widespread measurable rainfall occurred across New Jersey. On the order of a quarter-inch to half-inch. Such meager totals do not solve our severe drought woes — but it will tamp down the fire danger for a day or two. And it is a nice change of pace.

Unfortunately, this round of rain does not represent any wholesale pattern change. This is still a mainly dry forecast. There are a couple opportunities for raindrops coming up — namely showers on Thursday and something more substantial early next week. But nothing close to the multiple-inch rainstorm we would need to close our growing rainfall deficit.

Looking ahead, our next impending weather story is a cooldown. Monday will be a mild, comfortable day — perfect for any outdoor Veteran's Day ceremonies across the state. But Tuesday turns blustery, with temperatures at least 15 degrees colder. Get ready for a real November-ish chill to the air, coming right up.

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Monday

As of this writing (6:30 a.m.), rain has largely ended across New Jersey. There are still some sprinkles left over, and residual clouds will remain with us through the early and mid morning hours. Sunny skies will win out by Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, temperatures are on the mild side. Starting in the 50s and even 60s Monday morning. And then highs will reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees Monday afternoon. Keep in mind, our normal highs here approaching the midpoint of November are in the mid 50s — we are well above that benchmark for yet another day.

It will likely be breezy Monday day and night, with top winds around 20 mph. While that would normally spark an elevated danger of wildfire development and spread, the recent showers will help keep that risk level lower.

Monday night will be mainly clear, dry, and cool. But not a frost or freeze, as the breeze keeps the air stirred up. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to sink to the mid 40s or so.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be a very different weather day than Monday. Bright and sunny, sure. But much cooler. And blustery.

Expect a brisk wind throughout Tuesday, likely gusting over 30 mph. That will not only transport a new colder, drier air mass into New Jersey, it will ramp up the wildfire danger to extreme levels again.

Meanwhile, temperatures will only reach about 50 to 55 degrees for a high on Tuesday, as the pendulum swings to "below normal".

Wednesday

Wednesday's weather will be quieter. But even cooler.

Wednesday morning looks like a freeze for the vast majority of New Jersey. Only urban centers and the immediate coast have a chance at staying above 32 degrees.

Wednesday afternoon's high temperatures will only reach about 50 degrees. That is pretty chilly. At least it will be sunny, dry, and calm.

Thursday

Clouds will fill in New Jersey's sky on Thursday as a weak disturbance rides in. There will be a chance for some rain showers here — but it's not a slam dunk, so do not expect a drought buster here.

Highs on Thursday will only reach around 50 degrees again. A cool, grey day.

Friday & Beyond

More seasonable temperatures return for Friday and Saturday, with highs pushing into the mid to upper 50s amid sunshine and a fresh breeze.

Next opportunity for some rain will be early next week. Long-range forecast models show a storm system streaming through in the late Sunday to Monday time frame. In a perfect world, there is an opportunity for an inch-plus of rain here. But it's over a week away — let's see how things continue to develop.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.