Passing system spits spotty showers and storms toward NJ Tuesday
Let's start by talking about the end of the forecast. I'm still loving the end of the week, Friday and the weekend. As humidity nosedives, we'll enjoy sunny skies, dry weather, and slightly-below-normal temperatures — it doesn't get much better than that in the summertime! Of course, we have to get through some humidity and thunderstorms first.
A storm system is just barely clipping the Jersey Shore on this Tuesday morning, spitting out some showers along our coastal counties. That system is also stirring up the Atlantic Ocean a bit, so a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents has been posted for the entire Jersey Shore.
You'll probably catch breaks of midday sunshine, with building humidity and high temperatures pushing into the mid 80s. Then we'll have to keep an eye on the sky Tuesday afternoon. A round of spotty thunderstorms is expected, which could produce some localized downpours through the evening rush. The best chance for storms appears to be northern and central New Jersey.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue for a bit Tuesday evening, before fizzling out and exiting the state. The rest of the overnight will be partly cloudy, with patchy fog. Low temps dip into the sticky lower 70s.
Wednesday looks even more unsettled. The day will start with a mix of sun and clouds, with a stiff breeze and high humidity. As high temperatures reach the upper 80s, I think the heat index ("feels like" temperature) could approach the mid 90s — that's right on the edge of excessive/dangerous heat.
Model guidance shows a few strong thunderstorms popping up Wednesday afternoon, progressing generally from southwestern to northeastern NJ. Gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain will be possible.
A more widespread line of storms is expected later Wednesday evening, and timing is very important with this one. The later it gets, the less likely it will be that those storms will be strong to severe. I'm thinking everyone in the state gets wet through Wednesday night. A batch of steady, heavy rain seems likely for at least part of New Jersey.
Thursday will still be very warm and humid, with highs again in the upper 80s. But the day looks a bit quieter. We'll transition from morning clouds to afternoon sun, with just a few isolated showers from a passing cold front.
Our weather pattern changes dramatically on Friday as dry air sends dew points plummeting (from about 70 to about 50). Aside from an early morning shower, Friday looks dry with abundant sunshine. It will be slightly cooler too, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. A real midsummer treat!
And it looks like we'll keep the comfortable, pleasant weather for the weekend too! My only concern about Saturday is that it ends up a little bit too cool for the beach and pool. I'm going for lower 80s away from the coast, but some models limit high temps to the 70s. Sunday should be the warmer day of the weekend, as inland temps surge back to the seasonable mid 80s.
Monday looks good too, although very warm as thermometers creep into the upper 80s. Most of the day will feature partial sunshine, although widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may creep into view late-day.