Nor’easter exits NJ Tuesday, and our weather forecast turns quiet
The first day of Spring is just a week away! (The official Equinox occurs at 12:15 p.m. Tuesday 3/20.) That's actually an important benchmark — as temperatures warm due to longer days and a higher sun angle, it becomes much more difficult to get blockbuster snow storms.
As expected, we find ourselves on the western edge of yet another nor'easter (our third in ten days) on this Tuesday morning. Bands of light to moderate snow have been traversing New Jersey so far. But, as promised, accumulations have been limited.
As snow continues, slushy and/or icy roads could have a slight impact on the morning commute. Treated roads should remain "just wet," although elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses could get extra slippery. Visibility will be reduced in the heavier snow bands.
Snowfall will taper off from southwest to northeast as the morning presses on. Most of the state will be done by late morning Tuesday, although snow showers may hold on to NE NJ through the early afternoon hours.
We're also watching the coast. As of this writing, we're right at the most precarious high tide cycle. Latest guidance suggests water levels will peak just above flood stage, leading to minor flooding of tidal waterways. If vulnerable, low-lying roads become flooded, they'll need to be closed for a few hours. Remember: never attempt to drive, walk, or swim through flooded areas.
By Tuesday afternoon, we should see breaks of sunshine emerging. We'll keep the gusty wind (over 30 mph at times), helping to limit high temperatures to the lower 40s — that's a bit below normal for mid March.
Overnight, we'll see mostly clear skies and we'll feel a continuing stiff breeze. It will be seasonably chilly, as low temperatures dip into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. The wind chill may be as cold as about 20 degrees through Wednesday morning.
Our weather pattern will start to quiet down on Wednesday, although a weak wave riding through the atmosphere could spawn a few snow/rain showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Best chance of snowflake and raindrops will be in northern New Jersey, and no accumulation is anticipated. Along the way, skies will transition from sun back to clouds, and the brisk wind will continue. Forecast high temperatures are in the mid 40s for all but far North Jersey.
Thursday, the Ides of March, looks pretty pleasant. Expect partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s.
Friday will also be partly sunny, but a bit cooler. Highs will only be in the lower 40s.
The early look at the St. Patrick's Day weekend shows a pretty calm forecast. I'm seeing mostly sunny skies for both days, with upper 40s on Saturday and lower 50s on Sunday. Models currently show a "near-miss" from a southern storm system early Sunday, so that's worth watching over the next 5 days.
So the big question... Are we done with big snow for the season? I believe Mother Nature has one more chance, maybe about ten days, to push another surge of cold air and snow into New Jersey. Climatologically, late March and April are not really known for snowstorms here in New Jersey. If we can make it to next weekend without another storm, I think the threat for another significant taste of winter will be near zero.