NJ weather: Friday and Saturday stay dry, Sunday turns wet

The Bottom Line

Friday and Saturday will be pleasant, but Sunday turns wet as the remnants of what is now Hurricane Isaias (pronounced "ees-ah-EE'-ahs") swing toward New Jersey. Friday will end up 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Thursday, with high clouds creeping in from the south and a prominent breeze kicking in. But skies will still be bright for most, and high temperatures will still touch the 70s. Cloud cover will thicken up even more on Saturday, but the day looks completely dry. Sunday, however, trends wet across the Garden State. While you may hit some dry weather in the morning before the storm arrives, a period of steady to heavy rain looks increasingly likely from the afternoon through early evening hours. We should dry out and clear out in time to enjoy almost all of Columbus Day Monday.

Get our free mobile app

Weather Hazards

The big weather story here is obviously Hurricane Isaias, set to make a destructive landfall along the Gulf Coast late Friday night and then slide toward New Jersey through the weekend. I am leaning hard toward an “inclement, not dangerous” forecast for Sunday, with periods of rain that could be heavy through the afternoon and evening hours.

Rainfall totals could exceed an inch, especially to the south. Some models even go as high as 2 or 3 inches in New Jersey. That is enough for ponding and localized flooding issues, but not widespread, dramatic problems.

There could be some elevated wind and rumbles of thunder, but again, I do not see any major alarm bells. And the surf may get churned up, with about a foot of storm surge possible. But that is only enough to cause localized coastal flooding issues.

The key point: New Jersey is not getting a hurricane. New Jersey is not getting a tropical storm. This is not another Sandy or Ida. The remnants of Isaias will bring plain old rain — possibly a lot of it for a few hours. And that is about it.

Climatological Context

October 9 is the 282nd day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 68 to 70 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 49 to 52 degrees.

October is, on average, New Jersey’s sixth warmest, sixth wettest, and seventh snowiest month of the year.

Friday

There will be a few weather changes compared to Thursday, as temperatures dip a few degrees cooler, we pick up some high clouds, and a fresh breeze kicks up in the afternoon. But this will be New Jersey's 5th fantastic fall day in a row.

Temperatures have mainly dipped into the 40s Friday morning, with a few 30s in northwestern New Jersey and some 50s along the coast. Both the morning and afternoon will trend cooler than Thursday, but we have to call this weather pleasant.

Expect plenty of sunshine across the state Friday. Having said that, high clouds will progressively creep into the sky from the south. Those clouds are actually the very northern edge of the sprawling Hurricane Isaias circulation, even though the storm itself remains hundreds of miles away.

Friday afternoon will also turn breezy, with high temperatures reaching the lower 70s. That is reasonably close to normal for early October.

Friday night stays quiet too, with scattered clouds and cool low temperatures around 50 degrees.

Saturday

Saturday stays dry. Once again, no weather problems yet.

Clouds will continue increasing and thickening up, as tropical moisture starts advancing toward New Jersey.

High temperatures will reach around 70 degrees, keeping us seasonable and comfortable. It may not be a brilliantly sunny day, but rain should stay away during the daytime hours.

Initial showers from Isaias' remnants may enter our vicinity late Saturday night, around Midnight. But not before.

Sunday

Sunday is the one wet day in this forecast.

There is a chance that you catch a brief window of dry weather early Sunday morning, especially the farther north and east in New Jersey you go. That does depend upon exactly how quickly the remnants of Isaias advance northward. But rain should overspread New Jersey by around midday.

From there, expect periods of steady rain through the afternoon and early evening. And some of it could come down pretty hard.

In terms of rainfall totals, I have a general rule: Never underestimate the rainfall potential of tropical moisture.

Forecast models have shown anywhere from about a half-inch to 2 inches of rain across New Jersey. Definitely wet, but not concerning. Given the rich tropical moisture associated with Isaias, it makes sense to lean somewhat toward the wetter side of that range. So more than an inch is a reasonable possibility, especially across southern New Jersey.

That would be enough to produce some big puddles, ponding on roads, and localized flooding of poor-drainage areas. But even in the absolutely worst-case wettest scenarios, this does not currently look like a widespread flash flood emergency.

Some gusty winds and rumbles of thunder could accompany the rain too. But the primary impact remains straightforward: It is going to rain Sunday. Maybe even pour for a time.

Temperatures will be held to the mid 60s at best underneath the thick clouds and raindrops.

Monday & Beyond

By Columbus Day Monday, Isaias' remnant low will be exiting, and we should flip back to nice weather.

A few lingering showers may still be around early Monday morning. But the overall trend will be toward drier weather and clearing skies by mid to late morning.

High temperatures should recover into the seasonable upper 60s.

As long as the current forecast holds, almost all of Columbus Day Monday should be salvageable — perhaps even quite pleasant once the clouds start breaking apart. That means we will salvage two-thirds to three-quarters of the holiday weekend. Not bad, on balance.

Long range forecast models show some temperature ups and downs next week, and a few minor bursts of rain. There are no major storm systems on the horizon. However, I do think morning frosts will become more and more frequent in the coming two weeks as we dive deeper and deeper into autumn.

NJ WEATHER CENTER: Check the 5 Day Forecast