The bottom line for Monday's forecast: Once we clear out some residual "junk" from our atmosphere, high pressure will make for a few pleasant, quiet, sunny, and seasonable weather days for New Jersey.

Our going forecast included a chance for "spotty" or "occasional" showers for Monday, but we've had to upgrade that rain chance quite a bit. Radar and forecast models depict a batch of steady rain pushing through the state Monday morning. Light to moderate stuff, maybe a rumble a thunder — overall no big deal, just a soggy AM commute.

Rain should exit the Garden State by lunchtime Monday, and then skies clear quickly into Monday afternoon. Despite the clearing skies, temperatures will end up much cooler than the weekend and cooler than normal for early July. Look for highs in the upper 70s or so — cooler at the Shore, warmer in urban areas. Humidity levels will continue to slowly decline.

A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf is posted along the Jersey Shore Monday. Ocean wave heights will be elevated for at least the first half of the day, in the 3 to 4 foot range.

Monday night will be mostly clear, dry, and fairly comfortable. Low temperatures should dip into the mid 60s overnight. (I'd like to see those temps a few degrees cooler to truly call it "comfy," but maybe I'm too picky!)

We have a great summer day on deck for Tuesday, with sunny skies and dry weather statewide. Thermometers will warm up again, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 90 somewhere in New Jersey.

More of the same for Wednesday, with high temps between 85 and 90 degrees under mostly to partly sunny skies. It will remain dry and, most importantly, humidity levels will remain manageable.

Some changes are ahead for Thursday, as our next storm system draws near. I think the day will start sunny. But our next round of showers and thunderstorms look to arrive in the early afternoon hours. With high temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points creeping upward, I think downpours and severe weather will be back on the table. We'll pinpoint the timing and impacts forecast further as the week goes on.

Friday flips back to dry, sunny weather. It will be breezy and warm, with highs holding steady in the mid 80s.

The early look at next weekend shows building heat and humidity — 90s will be possible for both Saturday and Sunday. A mainly dry frontal passage on Sunday could lead to spotty late-day showers and thunderstorms, but that forecast is no better than a coin flip at this point.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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