NJ’s atmosphere is a big, hot, wet sponge right now

New Jersey's heat wave continues Tuesday, with an Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory still in effect for most of the state. In fact, this may be the hottest of the bunch with high temperatures in the mid 90s and a heat index as high as 105. Wednesday will be sweltering and sweaty too, with a limited late-day thunderstorm chance. Thursday turns cloudy and stormy and therefore cooler. But it looks like this hot, wet sponge of an atmosphere will be fully squeezed Thursday night. Heavy rain and flooding will be a big concern — worst-case scenario is something like 2 to 6 inches of rain through midday Friday..

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Tuesday NJ weather: Heat warnings and advisories continue

Hot hot hot. And humid. It is the story of summer here in New Jersey. And this week takes temperatures to uncomfortable heights, as thermometers flirt with records and New Jerseyans sweat and swelter.

Tuesday will be very similar to Monday. Morning temperatures in the 70s. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s. (I would not be surprised if someone in NJ hits 100.) Heat index maxing out around 100 to 105.

This is dangerous heat if you don't take it easy, stay cool, and stay hydrated. Remember, heat is the number one weather-related killer in the United States — heat exhaustion and heat stroke can sneak up on you if you are careless and/or ignorant. The Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory are not a joke.

We also have another Air Quality Alert posted for ground-level ozone concentrations on Tuesday. Those sensitive groups — the very young, the very old, and those with heart/lung issues — should limit their exposure to the elements and spend as much time in air conditioning as possible.

Although an isolated popup shower or thunderstorm is not impossible on Tuesday, it is unlikely. Skies will be mostly sunny and winds will remain light.

Tuesday night stays sticky and uncomfortable. Lows will only dip into the mid 70s — not cool at all.

Wednesday NJ weather: One more day of sweltering, scorching heat

We face one last sweltering, scorching hot day on Wednesday before changes settle in.

Thermometers will soar back into the 90s again on Wednesday. Under partly sunny skies, the numbers may be a degree or two lower than Tuesday — but it really will not make a difference. The heat index will still be in the dangerous triple digits for most of the day.

By late afternoon or early evening, we will have to watch the northwestern sky for a thunderstorm. The chance looks limited and isolated, and looks like a North Jersey thing only. Still, if a storm does drift into the Garden State, it will likely be strong to severe, with some very heavy rain involved.

Thursday NJ weather: Stormy and cooler

Thursday is the final day of July. It is our grand day of transition, putting an end to this string of ferocious heat and humidity. It is also a really tricky forecast, so the details here are still shaky and in flux for now.

Skies will turn cloudy Thursday morning. By midday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will come into view. The later it gets Thursday afternoon and evening, the more likely we are to see pockets of heavy rain enter New Jersey. Flash flooding is a big concern here, with multiple inches of rain expected — perhaps on the order of 2 or 4 or even 6 inches.

Timing is the biggest question mark here. Every model includes torrential rain for part of New Jersey, on the order of 2+ inches. But will that come Thursday afternoon, heavily impacting the Thursday evening commute? Or will the most significant flooding hold off until Thursday night, turning into more of a Friday morning concern?

I do not want anyone being taken by surprise when this hot, wet sponge is inevitably squeezed. We will continue to track the latest forecast changes and communicate them, so you can plan accordingly to stay safe. Again Thursday afternoon into Friday morning is the precarious time here.

Because of the cloud cover and rain, Thursday's temperatures will generally turn cooler. But there will be a big range there. North Jersey will end up in the 70s. Through the middle part of the state, I expect highs around 80 degrees, give or take. The southern edge of New Jersey may still hit 90 degrees before raindrops arrive.

Friday NJ weather: Clearing eventually

Happy August! The day and the month may start wet, but this forecast is all about improving weather.

Friday is our cold front day. While Thursday's heavy rain chance may linger into Friday morning, I am hopeful we will see drier weather and clearing skies by the afternoon.

We should also start to taste cooler, drier air by Friday afternoon too. High temperatures will struggle to pass the lower-mid 70s. So within just a couple of days, we swing from 10+ degrees above normal to 10+ degrees below.

Saturday NJ weather: Refreshing air

If all goes well, and everything plays out remotely closely to what I laid out here, the first weekend of August will be delightful. Sunny, dry, and refreshing. Warm, but not hot.

My latest forecast calls for mostly sunny skies and highs near 80 on Saturday. Sunday turns partly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Low humidity will be wonderful.

A slow warming trend will probably continue into next week, with spotty rain chances returning eventually. I do not see any horrendous heat ridges or monster storm systems in the medium or long range forecast. The tropics are quiet too.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.