️❎ Governor's race tightens: Sherrill leads by just 5 points

️❎ Trump’s shadow looms large over New Jersey election

️❎ Voters deeply divided on economy, education, and crime

Trump, Taxes, and Turnout: What’s Driving the Tight Contest Between Sherrill and Ciattarelli

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – With just three days before early in-person voting begins on Oct. 25 and two weeks before Election Day on Nov. 4, New Jersey’s race for governor continues to tighten. Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a narrow five-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli among likely voters, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released Wednesday.

Sherrill is favored by 50% of likely voters, compared to 45% for Ciattarelli — a gap that falls within the poll’s margin of error. Only 3% of voters say they would choose another candidate, and 2% remain undecided.

"This race is going down to the wire," said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. “Turnout will decide everything — and in off-year elections like this, turnout is notoriously unpredictable.”

Political Polarization: Independents and Women Hold the Key

As expected, the race is deeply divided along party lines. An overwhelming 95% of Democrats back Sherrill, while 94% of Republicans support Ciattarelli. But independents — who make up a critical swing bloc — remain split: 49% lean toward Sherrill and 40% toward Ciattarelli.

A sharp gender divide is also emerging: women favor Sherrill by 18 points over men, while Ciattarelli performs significantly better with male voters. Age and education gaps further complicate the electoral map. Sherrill dominates among college-educated voters and seniors, while Ciattarelli leads with voters who have less formal education and those aged 35 to 49.

Among racial demographics, white voters favor Ciattarelli (53% to 46%), while Sherrill holds a commanding 30-point lead among nonwhite voters.

Trump Looms Over New Jersey’s Off-Year Showdown

While Trump isn’t on the ballot, he’s very much on voters' minds, with 52% indicating the former president is a major factor in their decision this year. That number soars to 78% among Democrats and drops to just 38% among Republicans. Even 42% of independents say Trump’s influence is shaping their vote.

Whether voters see Trump as a threat, a hero, or a political litmus test, his presence underscores how national politics are shaping what has traditionally been a quieter state contest.

Issues Dividing Voters: Economy, Schools, and Safety

❎ Voters remain split on who’s better equipped to tackle New Jersey’s top challenges.

❎ Economy and jobs: Ciattarelli has the edge (46% to Sherrill’s 40%)

❎ State budget and taxes: Ciattarelli again leads by 6–7 points

❎ Education and transportation: Sherrill holds slim leads in both

❎ Health care: Sherrill dominates (50% to 35%)

❎ Crime and safety: Ciattarelli wins (49% to 35%)

Favorability ratings also mirror the close contest. Sherrill is viewed favorably by 42% of voters, with 45% holding an unfavorable opinion. Ciattarelli scores similarly: 41% favorable and 47% unfavorable.

Polls do not predict outcomes in elections, but they do show trends. This is the third consecutive poll that has Sherrill at or over 50%, but those same polls also show Ciattarelli closing the gap.

Neither candidate has locked in a guaranteed path to victory — and with more than 1 in 7 voters unsure who will win, the final outcome could come down to turnout, late-deciders, and independent swing voters.

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