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For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.


The Bottom Line

This is quite a wintry forecast.

In the midst of our latest cold snap, Wednesday looks to be just as cold and even windier than Tuesday. Cold and wind = not my favorite kind of weather.

The wind will die down, but we will have one more day of cold weather on Thursday before temperatures moderate into the weekend.

Arctic air is our big weather story this week. And next week too. (Accuweather)
Arctic air is our big weather story this week. And next week too. (Accuweather)
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Meanwhile, my 5 Day Forecast contains three distinct chances of precipitation. Snow showers on Thursday. A batch of rain on Saturday. And the potential for snow late Sunday.

So we have two chances for (generally light) accumulating snow over the next five days. And next week's forecast trends even colder.

Hence, the headline of this post. Please do not sleep on some deceptively active, uncomfortable, inclement weather coming to New Jersey over the next week.

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Wednesday

It is cold. And windy. And that is just about all you need to know about Wednesday's weather in New Jersey.

Wednesday will be windy and cold across New Jersey. Period, full stop. (Accuweather)
Wednesday will be windy and cold across New Jersey. Period, full stop. (Accuweather)
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Temperatures Wednesday morning are in the teens and 20s. That is what the thermometer says — but you know that does not tell the whole story.

Wind gusts could blow as hard as 30 mph Wednesday, making for a bitingly blustery day. Wind chills in the morning are as low as the single digits, and will go no higher than about 20 degrees in the afternoon.

Look for mostly sunny skies, dry weather, and a high temperature around 30 degrees. Bundle up.

The GFS model temperature forecast for Wednesday afternoon keeps thermometers at or below the freezing mark. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
The GFS model temperature forecast for Wednesday afternoon keeps thermometers at or below the freezing mark. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
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The ferocious biting wind will finally lighten up Wednesday evening. However, because the air will not be stirred up, temperatures will nosedive quickly. Under clear skies, overnight lows are forecast to reach the upper teens on average across NJ.

Thursday

Thursday will still be on the cold side, although winds will stay light.

High temperatures will hover around the freezing mark, in the lower 30s.

Thursday will stay on the cold side, although winds will be significantly calmer. (Accuweather)
Thursday will stay on the cold side, although winds will be significantly calmer. (Accuweather)
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Thursday will start with mostly cloudy skies. And then a weak impulse will move in starting around 2 p.m. Scattered snow showers are possible through about 10 p.m.

NAM model forecast as of 7 p.m. Wednesday, showing widely scattered snow showers throwing conversational snow over New Jersey. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
NAM model forecast as of 7 p.m. Wednesday, showing widely scattered snow showers throwing conversational snow over New Jersey. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
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Snowflakes will be light, and not everyone in the state will see them. However, because the ground is so cold, snow will likely stick immediately. So we could end up with a dusting to a coating of accumulation. (Nothing more than that though.)

Friday

Finally, a pleasant January day.

Friday will be mostly sunny, with light winds and dry weather. High temperatures will reach about 40 degrees — par for the course for "dead of winter" mid January.

You will never hear me complaining about "normal" temperatures.

Saturday

A pair of storm systems will affect New Jersey over the weekend.

The first arrives on Saturday. Meanwhile, a south-southwest wind will push warm air into New Jersey, making high temperatures rise into the 40s across the state. 50 degrees is not completely out of the question in South Jersey. That would make Saturday New Jersey's warmest day since New Year's Day.

My best description of Saturday's rain chance is the "PM" hours — centered on mid-afternoon through early evening. It looks like mainly showery, light stuff — although a period of steady rain is certainly possible. Total rainfall will probably stay below a quarter-inch.

Saturday's GFS model forecast shows almost all rain affecting New Jersey in the afternoon and evening hours. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
Saturday's GFS model forecast shows almost all rain affecting New Jersey in the afternoon and evening hours. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
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The only risk of wintry weather here will be far northwestern New Jersey, in and around Sussex County, where higher elevation areas could be just cold enough to sustain some wintry mix. Slippery conditions are possible, although outright accumulations will be very limited.

Sunday

Our next arctic front arrives on Sunday. And along with it, an even more pronounced chill into next week.

By the numbers, Sunday will be a bit colder than Sunday. My forecast has early high temperatures in the upper 30s, before thermometers slide downward through the afternoon.

The big question for Sunday: Will it snow?

The hype machine is in full swing, as things could turn interesting and wintry late-day Sunday. That is, if a coastal low can form and skirt right along that cold front through New Jersey.

A late Sunday storm system could fly close enough to New Jersey to spark some snow. (Accuweather)
A late Sunday storm system could fly close enough to New Jersey to spark some snow. (Accuweather)
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There is a potentially snowy scenario here. Several forecast models are promoting the idea of "a few inches" of snow accumulation in New Jersey — enough to snarl travel and require a shovel.

The GFS model, on the other hand, paints no more than a tenth of an inch of snow over the Garden State.

At the moment, I'm leaning more toward the "low snow" setup. Certainly the possibility is there for some snow showers. And even some possible stickage. But this setup, with arctic air charging forth once again, just does not have hype-worthy "blockbuster" potential.

We will have much more to say about Sunday's snow chance on Thursday and especially Friday. If there is a snow map to be drawn, that is probably when it would happen.

The Extended Forecast

Ha, and you thought January was cold so far? Just wait until next week.

The coldest air mass of the season will envelop the northern three-quarters of the continental United State by midweek.

For Monday, I'm seeing morning lows in the teens and afternoon highs in the mid 20s. And of course, it will be breezy to windy, potentially keeping the wind chill in the single digits.

By Tuesday, we will be flirting with "dangerous cold" territory. Single digit temperatures in the morning. Highs in the teens. Wind chills probably below zero at times — that is what makes hypothermia and frostbite more likely and more dangerous.

Next week's air mass will be positively frigid. This GFS model temperature forecast shows highs only in the teens next Tuesday. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
Next week's air mass will be positively frigid. This GFS model temperature forecast shows highs only in the teens next Tuesday. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
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The last time New Jersey had high temperatures only in the teens? Over two years ago, Christmas Eve 2022. Before that, February 2019. So it is rare, but not unheard of, to get that cold here in New Jersey.

The truly "extreme" cold will likely be another 3 to 4 day event, before temperatures moderate again by next weekend. That would be our next opportunity for any kind of impactful storm system (read: snow chance) too.

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Gallery Credit: BJ/Getty Images

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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