I called this one. NJ gas prices are climbing again, and here’s why.

I said gas prices would go back up. I hate being right about this one, but here we are again.

According to AAA, New Jersey's average price for regular gasoline hit $4.3182 a gallon today, September 9. That's genuinely unusual for this state, New Jersey is now sitting above the national average of $4.2245, something that doesn't happen often. A month ago, NJ drivers were paying closer to $4.05 to $4.08 a gallon. By Labor Day weekend, the statewide average had already climbed to about $4.27, up from roughly $3.17 a year ago.  That's about a 27-cent jump in a single month, and the trend hasn't leveled off.

SEE ALSO: I said gas prices would go back up. I hate being right about this one, but here we are again

A Lukoil station in Mercer County, diesel prices climbing right alongside regular unleaded. | EJ

Here's why: the Iran conflict just escalated again

The United States and Iran have been in active conflict since late February, and a ceasefire that briefly calmed things down expired in mid-August, dashing hopes that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply moves through, would return to normal. This past weekend, that conflict flared up again directly. The U.S. struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it hit three tankers and three U.S.-linked vessels in response. Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped to nearly $97 a barrel in response, a six-week high, up 9% in just five days and 19% over the past month.

Tight oil markets translate directly into higher prices at the pump here at home. The national average for regular gasoline has climbed from $4.08 to $4.17 over roughly the same stretch. 

What this actually costs you

For a typical 40-mile-a-day commuter driving a 25-mpg vehicle, that works out to roughly $148 a month just for the drive to and from work, before adding a single weekend trip or errand. Drivers who've seen prices closer to $4.59 at some individual stations are looking at closer to $238 a month commuting 60 miles a day.  A 15-gallon fill-up at today's statewide average runs about $64.

I wrote back in the summer that I hated being right about predicting this exact thing. And I followed that up not long after when prices actually started climbing. With the Iran conflict showing no clear sign of resolving and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted, I don't have any better news to offer this time either. Keep an eye on the tank, and don't be shocked if that number keeps climbing before it comes back down.