I said gas prices would go back up — I hate being right about this one

I stood at a Sunoco in Mercer County back on June 10 and took a photo of the price sign. Regular cash, $3.87. I remember writing that day that the relief felt real but temporary, because the same morning that sign read $3.87, Iran had launched new missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. I said the premium that had drained out of oil prices in May could reinflate in June. I did not love being right about that.

It has reinflated. And then some.

Where prices stand right now

According to AAA, New Jersey's average price for a gallon of regular hit $4.17 on July 24 and $4.18 on July 25, with the national average sitting at $4.11. That is a serious climb from where things stood in early July. AAA reported the national average jumped 15 cents in a single week, landing at $4.09 on July 23, with most states now sitting at $4 a gallon or higher. That is the highest national average since late July 2022.

To put the full arc in perspective: prices spiked hard back in the spring when the war in Iran first began, with New Jersey's average peaking above $4.27 and the national average topping out near $4.56 on May 21. A ceasefire brought real relief through late May and into June, which is what I was standing in front of at that Sunoco. Then, that same week, the ceasefire started cracking. Now, in late July, we are most of the way back to where this all started.

SEE ALSO: NJ gas prices dropping below $4 — but here's why I wouldn't celebrate yet 

Ewing Wawa July 27, 2026 | photo by EJ

Why it's happening again

The driver behind this latest climb is the same one behind the spring spike: the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply passes every day. On July 8, the U.S. carried out fresh airstrikes across Iran after the tenuous ceasefire between the two countries appeared to collapse following Iranian attacks on shipping in the strait. Iran retaliated with strikes against U.S. allies across the Middle East, triggering alerts as far away as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.

Crude oil has responded exactly the way it did in the spring. Oil prices have pushed into the $90-a-barrel range amid the renewed volatility, and AAA's own analysis this week noted that continued instability in the region could keep driving costs up through the second half of summer. That is not a guess dressed up as news. That is the organization that tracks these numbers daily telling drivers directly that this is not necessarily close to over.

What I'd do with this information

I do not have a crystal ball, and neither does AAA. Oil markets have swung wildly in both directions all year based on ceasefire headlines and retaliation headlines, sometimes within the same week. But the pattern from earlier this year is worth remembering: when tensions in the strait escalate, pump prices follow within days, and when they cool, prices take their time catching back up on the way down.

If you have a longer trip planned this week, filling up sooner rather than later is not unreasonable. If the situation in the Gulf stabilizes, we could see relief again the way we did in late May. If it does not, AAA's own warning suggests the back half of summer could get more expensive before it gets cheaper.

I said in June I was old enough to remember watching a price I thought was temporary become the new floor. Six weeks later, that lesson is holding up.