Winter Storm Warning: Colder, snowier forecast for North Jersey

Part of North Jersey hasn't seen a flake of snow yet. But the National Weather Service has upgraded all or part of 7 North Jersey counties to a Winter Storm Warning:

--Until 10 p.m... Eastern Bergen, Western Essex, Eastern Passaic, Western Union.
--Until 4 a.m... Western Bergen, Western Passaic.
--Until 9 a.m... Morris, Sussex, Warren.

Why? The forecast is trending slightly colder for this afternoon and evening. So the snow and wintry mix may very well last longer than originally expected. That bumps up the expected snowfall accumulation by an inch or two. Once the upper limit of the NWS forecast hits the 7" threshold... BAM, it's Warning time.

I think my forecast from Thursday morning is holding up OK. Maybe add an inch to snow totals, but that's not a significant departure. Also ignore the advisory information from this morning's post, as it's now outdated. (Keep reading...)

A less-severe Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the following counties for the following times (this includes some new additions since my morning summary):
--Until 2 p.m... Atlantic, Southeastern Burlington, Cumberland, Western Monmouth, Ocean
--Until 3 p.m... Northwestern Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem
--Until 9 p.m... Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset
--Until 10 p.m... Eastern Essex, Hudson, Eastern Union

The Wind Advisory calling for wind gusts up to 50 mph will begin at the following times for our coastal counties:
--3 p.m. to 3 a.m... Southeastern Burlington, Monmouth, Ocean
--1 p.m. to 11 p.m... Atlantic, Cape May

And we still have a Flood Watch due to heavy rain and potential flooding issues:
--Until Midnight... Atlantic, Southeastern Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Monmouth, Ocean

Once again, the bottom line for this storm remains the same. Probable travel disruptions in North Jersey. Minor nuisance snow and ice in central and southwestern New Jersey. Just plain rain along the coast. And no matter what's falling from the sky — wet or wintry — this evening's commute could be a real challenge.

Stay tuned for additional updates during and after the storm. Be smart and stay safe!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.