Wet vs. dry: Thanksgiving week rain timeline for NJ

The Bottom Line

About 18 hours of this holiday week will be wet and inclement, in two separate spurts. The rest of the week, free and clear.

Storm system #1 is entering New Jersey Tuesday morning. This healthy line of rain will force umbrellas up and windshield wipers on for a few hours. And then sunshine resumes Tuesday afternoon.

The best news of this forecast? Wednesday will be dry and fair. It will be a very busy travel day, with zero weather issues for you.

The worst news of this forecast? Thanksgiving will be wet. Scattered rain will douse the Garden State throughout the day. Having said that, flooding is highly unlikely. And the risk of wintry weather is very low too.

The rest of the holiday weekend trends quite cold. December will begin with a January-ish "dead of winter" kind of chill in the air.

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Tuesday

Umbrellas at the ready. A solid band of rain will affect all of New Jersey Tuesday morning, and may slow down your early commute. Here are the details:

—What? A cold front will drive in a quick round of rain. This goes beyond "just showers," as rainfall looks pretty steady for a time.

—When? Now through Noon.

—Where? Everyone in New Jersey will get wet.

—How Much? About a quarter-inch of rain is expected.

—Any Other Issues? There are some pockets of moderate to heavy rain. But no flooding, severe weather, or winter weather are expected.

Beyond lunchtime, our weather should dry out and skies will clear quickly through the afternoon. A brisk westerly wind will kick up, gusting over 20 mph late-day. That is our new colder air mass arriving.

Tuesday will stay fairly mild, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Thermometers may start to slide backward once that wind picks up in the afternoon.

And then we are back on the chilly side as of Tuesday night. Overnight lows will end up in the mid 30s, with mainly clear skies and calmer winds.

Wednesday

Cooler, but quiet.

Wednesday's high temperatures will be about ten degrees cooler than Tuesday's, in fact. New Jersey will top out in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Definitely jacket weather.

But the forecast is fine for travelers by road, rail, or air. (Or otherwise, I guess.) With a mix of sun and clouds, winds will stay light and our weather will stay completely dry for the big Thanksgiving Eve getaway day.

Thursday (Thanksgiving Day)

Thursday is not going to be a nice day. Wet, grey, and generally cool.

Again, here's the rundown:

—What? A broad storm system will spark wet weather from the Gulf of Mexico to New England, including New Jersey.

—When? Rain is expected from about 4 a.m. to 4 p.m. Thursday.

—Where? Everyone in New Jersey will get wet.

—How Much? A half-inch of rain is likely. Some forecast models show closer to an inch of healthy rainfall.

—Any Other Issues? There is a limited chance for some wintry mix among the higher elevations of NW NJ only. Maybe even some light snow accumulations, on the order of a couple inches. That's it — no other winter weather, severe weather, or flooding concerns.

I would not call Thursday a total washout because there could be some breaks in the rain. As we have discussed, I do expect the soggy weather to be disruptive for road/air travelers, parade-goers, football players and spectators, outdoor turkey fryers, and more.

As it stands now, excessive wind should not be a problem for the balloons in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York.

Temperatures on Thursday are tricky. My latest forecast shows highs ranging from about 40 degrees in far northern NJ to the mid 50s along the southern coast. In general, those raindrops are going to be cold and uncomfortable.

Lingering showers are possible beyond that 4 p.m. benchmark, into Thursday evening. Skies may start to clear by daybreak, especially to the north and west.

Friday

One more stubborn shower may clip NJ's coastline early Friday morning. But beyond 7 or 8 o'clock, we should be dry and clear for the rest of the holiday weekend. No problems traveling home.

Friday will feature partial clearing — let's call it "partly sunny" for the afternoon. And it will be unseasonably chilly, with highs in the mid 40s amidst a stiff northwesterly breeze.

Saturday & Beyond

Some of the coldest air of the season settles in as we turn the calendar page from Saturday to Sunday.

For both Saturday and Sunday, I am setting morning lows in the 20s (away from the coast) and barely to 40 degrees during the day. Those temperatures would be typical in late January — the "dead of winter". But here in December, it is 10+ degrees below normal. Methinks it is almost time to ramp up the heater and grab the heavier winter coat.

Long range model guidance shows next week will stay pretty chilly too. There are

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.