Up to 4″ snow, 2″ rain, 60mph wind: Latest on NJ’s weekend storm

The Bottom Line

For the 4th time this February and the 11th time this season, we have a winter storm in the forecast for New Jersey. (Actually two — but we will address the second one at the end.)

I think I read somewhere that the President's Day Weekend tends to be New Jersey's stormiest holiday weekend of the year. It seems we always have snow, ice, extreme cold, or all of the above around this time of year. February is, after all, the state's average snowiest month of the year.

The bottom line for Saturday is that most New Jerseyans face a few hours of snow, causing sloppy roads and slippery travel. But this storm system carries with it a surge of warmth, so a transition to rain will take over before accumulations get too high.

Sunday looks like a real soaker, with periods of rain pretty much all day. Remember, we really need the rain — the entire state is still officially in drought, with a third of NJ classified as "Extreme Drought".

Beyond the storm, an arctic blast will bring gusty winds and a return to really cold temperatures.

There is another storm system in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame next week. Impacts are still highly uncertain, but "big snow" is a possibility.

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Timeline

Snow Start... First snowflakes should spread into New Jersey in the Saturday early afternoon hours, between about Noon and 3 p.m. The ground is cold enough that it will stick and start to accumulate immediately (on non-treated surfaces).

Change to Rain... For far southern New Jersey, precipitation will likely be plain rain at onset with air temperatures near 40. For south-central NJ, I expect a transition to all rain by about 6 or 7 p.m. Saturday evening. For north-central NJ, it will be snowy longer, flipping to icy mix and then all rain through 9 or 10 p.m. Saturday evening. The northern reaches of New Jersey, mainly along and north of Interstate 80, will hold on to snow and/or wintry mix until early Sunday morning, around 1 or 2 a.m.

The Brunt... First of all, snow could come in "hot n' heavy" Saturday afternoon and early evening, leading to quick accumulations. The strongest part of the storm will actually come around midday Sunday. Only plain rain will be falling across New Jersey at that time, but it could really pour for a while. Embedded thunderstorms are possible too.

Tapering Off... By mid-afternoon Sunday, around 2 or 3 p.m., the storm will be moving off the coast and rain will slowly taper off across New Jersey. Final raindrops are expected in the state around 6 or 7 p.m. Sunday evening. Behind the rain, a gusty wind will kick up "whooshing" in cold, arctic air.

Accumulations / Impacts

South Jersey (White)... Almost all rain. Little to no snow or ice accumulation. Just wet. Total rainfall will likely end up between 1 and 2 inches.

South-Central Jersey (Green)... A few hours of snow could put a healthy coating on the ground. I will call it 0 to 1 inch, just to be safe. But I expect most road conditions to also be wet not wintry in this zone.

North Central Jersey (Light Blue)... It will get snowy for most of Saturday afternoon and evening, potentially causing an inch or two of fresh snow accumulation. Enough for slushy roads and slick travel conditions. Depending how quick and clean the changeover to rain is, there could be some light icing on top of that snowfall too.

North Jersey (Dark Blue)... Even the snow zone of New Jersey will eventually flip to rain, as temperatures rise into the 40s. Key word: Eventually. 2 to 4 inches of snow will be followed by a period of sleet and freezing rain potentially causing a glaze of ice. It is not a "major" storm, especially by North Jersey standards — but those conditions will not be fun to drive in regardless.

Advisories

A Winter Weather Advisory covers all or part of eight New Jersey counties starting Saturday afternoon:
—Noon to 10 p.m. Saturday... Hunterdon and Somerset.
—Noon Saturday to 1 a.m. Sunday... Bergen, western Essex, eastern Passaic, Warren.
—Noon Saturday to 4 a.m. Sunday... Morris and Sussex.
—Noon Saturday to 7 a.m. Sunday... Western Passaic.

Advisories are generally issued when at least 2 to 3 inches of snow and/or a light glaze of ice could cause treacherous travel conditions.

Additionally, a High Wind Watch has been issued for the entire state, cautioning of wind gusts to 50-60 mph after the storm:
—10 a.m. Sunday to 6 p.m. Monday... Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Gloucester, Monmouth, Ocean, and Salem.
—1 p.m. Sunday to 6 p.m. Monday... Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren.
—6 p.m. Sunday to 6 p.m. Monday... Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, and Union.

That wind is strong enough to blow down branches and weak trees, and also relocate your garbage can. Scattered power outages are possible. Plus, the fierce wind will add a big bite to the increasingly cold air.

What Comes Next?

High temperatures on Monday will struggle to reach the mid 30s. And then Tuesday and Wednesday will end up closer to 30 degrees. Overnights could dip into the teens, with a wind chill ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) near zero. That is very close to "dangerous cold" territory.

Finally, I have to address the potential for a significant winter storm around Wednesday-Thursday next week. I have been casually mentioning this possibility for a few days now, based solely on the fact that our forecast models have consistently shown a storm signal in this time frame. That is remarkable, and worth a mention so nobody is surprised by this thing.

However, uncertainty remains very high, as the exact track and speed of the storm will dictate how much snow New Jersey will (or will not) see.

Basically, you can pick a number between 0 and 25 inches of snow, and I can show you a forecast model that suggests that possibility somewhere in NJ.

I will say that a complete "miss" is becoming increasingly unlikely. We can basically game out three potential scenarios as it stands now:
1.) A glancing blow, where southern and coastal New Jersey gets some snow. But nothing to the north and west. (Note: The latest GFS favors this solution.)
2.) If the storm track drifts too far north north, southern and coastal New Jersey could see more icy mix than straight snow. So the opportunity for major snowfall tracks northward, into central and northern parts of the state. (Note: The latest Canadian and UKMET models bear out something like this.)
3.) The "worst case" scenario would be a perfect storm track, abundant cold air, and about 12 hours of heavy snow. A foot of accumulation for all! (Note: The latest European model is quite impressive, showing a big snow storm for all.)

To be clear, I do not favor any of these three scenarios right now. They are all on the table for now. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, we will start to get better resolution on potential accumulations and impacts. Timing is important to nail down too, as "first flakes" could be anywhere from Wednesday afternoon to late Wednesday night.

And that's that. Enjoy this weekend's snow, rain, wind, and cold. And we will likely talk more about the potential midweek nor'easter late Sunday or early Monday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.