The Bottom Line
We're diving into the final week of July with a variety of summertime weather in the forecast. Monday and Tuesday will easily be the hottest days of the week, with limited chances of rain. Wednesday is swinging toward a very nice day. But then Thursday turns stormy and unsettled, before another dry, pleasant air mass arrives for the weekend.
In other words, as I teased last week, New Jersey should enjoy more "nice" weather than "not" for the foreseeable future.
In the summertime, I usually approach the daily weather forecast by pondering three questions. 1.) How hot will it get? 2.) How hot will it feel? 3.) Any threat of thunderstorms?
All three of those contemplations are in play for Monday's forecast, as heat surges, humidity slowly scales back, and we do have a chance for a few thunderstorms.
We're starting the day with temperatures in the sticky 70s. There are some patches of light fog around too. No rain at the moment - overnight convection exited in the early morning hours. However, skies will remain mostly cloudy for the bulk of the day, with some late-day clearing expected.
Humidity levels will actually dial back slowly as the day goes on. Dew points in the tropical 70s descending into the more reasonable 60s (eventually).
High temperatures will push toward 90 degrees Monday afternoon for most of the state. The Jersey Shore will naturally end up cooler, closer to 80. It will be an OK "beach day" even though sunshine will be limited at times. Just watch the sky for a thunderstorm.
Yes, the air will still be "juicy" enough to sustain some thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Not everyone will get a "spark," so not everyone in NJ will see a storm. I think any storms that do form will be spotty - very much "hit or miss". But they will be capable of producing some downpours (1+ inch rainfall), along with cloud-to-ground lightning and marginal winds. (Severe 60 mph wind is not impossible, but such instances should be isolated.)
Skies will become mainly clear Monday night. And here's when you'll really feel the reduction in humidity. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s by Tuesday morning. Typical for late July. And slightly less muggy and more comfortable than the past couple of nights.
Another hot, 90+ degree day for most of the state. Moderate humidity will make it sticky, but not steamy.
The only rain chance on Tuesday will be some spotty showers during the evening hours.
Forecast models have been flip-flopping regarding Wednesday's forecast, between "hot" and "not". The latest guidance is leaning toward "not," which makes me think it has the makings of a very nice day.
Partly sunny, dry, and lower 80s.
Not so nice. It looks like a pretty unsettled day, as impulses ride along a slow moving front to drive several waves of showers and thunderstorms through New Jersey. No washout, but I can't guarantee any specific time of the day will be dry at this point. Because of the clouds and raindrops, high temperatures will only reach about 80 degrees.
The Extended Forecast
As long as the next four days play out as expected, I think we'll be set up for another dose of gorgeous weather for the end of the week. My current outlook shows lower-mid 80s with clearing skies and a nice breeze on Friday. And sun and clouds and lower 80s on Saturday. Our next chance of rain could come into play late Sunday into next Monday.
There are still no tropical concerns in the Atlantic.