Tuesday NJ weather: Hot and very humid, and getting more unsettled
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for eastern Monmouth County until 3:15 p.m. for a storm with 60 mph winds moving northeast at 25 mph
The Bottom Line
I call it dangerous heat when the heat index (the "feels like" or "apparent" temperature) reaches 100+ degrees. We were there on Monday. And we'll be close on Tuesday, although temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler. As a front approaches and stalls over New Jersey, our weather will become more and more unsettled too. The heat and humidity will help fuel a daily chance of sporadic to scattered thunderstorms every day through the weekend.
A Heat Advisory continues for the NYC metro area of NE NJ (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, and Union counties) until 8 p.m. Wednesday.
With temperatures mainly in the 70s, it is a steamy summer morning. Some fog has formed too, with visibility as low as a mile. Not dense enough to really get in your way on this Tuesday morning. But some fog and low clouds could hang around the coast for a little longer than you might like.
Skies will be mostly sunny, with passing clouds. High temperatures are forecast to pop to around 90 degrees — slightly cooler than Monday. But we're still facing a scorching heat index, pushing into the upper 90s (on average).
The air will certainly be juicy enough to sustain an isolated popup thunderstorm. Whether, when, and where we get a spark for that storm is questionable.
A few additional showers will be possible late Tuesday night, as a front approaches from the northwest. Don't expect the raindrops to cool us down though — overnight low temps only dip into the lower to mid 70s once again.
About the same. Partly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. A few thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon.
That front will still be hanging over us. As a series of shortwaves ride along that "highway in the sky," we'll face a few rounds of rain. So I have to include a chance of showers and thunderstorms at any time on Thursday. Skies will be mostly cloudy, and the day will just feel unsettled. High temperatures will be limited to the lower to mid 80s.
Looks very similar to Thursday. More clouds. More scattered rain and thunderstorms. And potentially even cooler, with highs only around 80 degrees.
Saturday & Beyond
I'm really not feeling confident about the long-range forecast. It looks like an area of low pressure sets up just southeast of New Jersey. That will keep our weather mostly cloudy and somewhat wet and cool and breezy on Saturday. But if that system nudges out to sea just a little bit on Sunday, we'll get rid of the rain and be left with just some clouds, an on-shore breeze, and cooler-than-normal temperatures. That would be wonderful — but it's a narrow window for wonderful. Let's see how the rest of the week shapes up.
Finally, there is a tropical wave way out in the Atlantic Ocean that is worth watching for development. It will likely become a tropical storm in the next day or two — Josephine is the next name on the list. It's still 10 to 14 days away from the U.S. East Coast, if the storm even heads this way.