Trump sinks to 29% as NJ Republicans face a growing ballot hole

🗳️ Registered Democrats have cast 305,106 more early ballots than Republicans in NJ.
📉 Trump’s NJ approval stands at 29% in a new FDU poll, adding pressure as Republicans defend three congressional seats.
🏘️ A turnout gap could affect races beyond Congress, including contests for local councils and school boards.

New Jersey Republicans have a growing problem heading into Election Day: Democrats are banking ballots while GOP voters are falling behind last year’s pace.

Add President Donald Trump’s 29% approval rating in a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, and the warning signs extend from congressional campaigns to your local council race.

We don't know who early voters cast a ballot for, But Republicans have a lot of ground to make up on Election Day.

NJ early voting gap tops 305,000 ballots

An October 28 analysis by Umichvoter, reported by the New Jersey Globe, found registered Democrats had cast 305,106 more advance ballots than Republicans.

Of 795,717 ballots cast by mail or during in-person early voting, 60.5% came from Democrats and 22.2% from Republicans.

Compared with the same point in 2025, Republican participation was down 23.5%, while Democratic participation increased 7.2%.

Those figures raise questions about Republican enthusiasm. They do not establish why voters have stayed home so far, or whether those voters will show up Tuesday.

Three Republican congressional seats at stake

Republicans hold just three of New Jersey’s 12 House seats: Tom Kean Jr.’s 7th District, Jeff Van Drew’s 2nd and Chris Smith’s 4th.

(Pictured R-L) Rep. Tom Kean, Jr; Rep. Chris Smith; Rep. Jeff Van Drew (Getty images)

Getting Republican voters to the polls will be critical to protecting those seats.

Kean’s district represents Democrats’ clearest pickup opportunity. He faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, in a race the Cook Political Report rates “Lean Democratic.”

Registered Democrats have cast 49,460 advance ballots in the district, compared with 25,062 Republicans.

Democrats also hold a nearly 14,000-ballot participation advantage in Van Drew’s district. Their advance-voting edge extends across all 12 congressional districts.

Even reliably Republican Ocean County shows a narrow Democratic advantage when mail ballots and in-person early voting are combined. Republicans still lead its in-person voting.

Trump’s NJ approval falls below 30%

The FDU poll released October 28 found 29% approve of Trump’s performance, while 66% disapprove.

Among independents, just 24% approve and 67% disapprove. Even among Republicans, 20% disapprove.

FDU poll director Dan Cassino said Trump’s visibility and unpopularity are weighing on Republican candidates. “Trump isn’t running for re-election, but he has made himself the face of the Republican Party,” Cassino said.

Your local election could feel the impact

The potential consequences reach beyond Washington and could impact down ballot races.

If the participation gap persists through Election Day, Republican candidates for local councils could face a tougher electorate. School board contests could also be affected, although those races are generally nonpartisan and voters may split their tickets.

The same caution applies to Congress: These are voters’ party registrations, not counted votes for candidates. Unaffiliated voters, crossover voting and Election Day participation will help determine the results.

In-person early voting continues through November 1. Election Day is November 3. Republicans still have time to close the participation gap.

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