Timeline for NJ’s lingering rain and season’s first snowflakes

The Bottom Line

It rained! Top rainfall totals overnight ended up right around 1.5". Wind gusts were not as strong as feared, but there were some fierce rumbles of thunder around South Jersey.

The wet weather definitely helped our wildfire situation. Although fair warning: we're still going to be talking about long-term drought concerns for some time to come — many areas of New Jersey need 10+ inches of rain to fully catch up.

The big band of steady/heavy rain has exited New Jersey. And now we enter a period of lingering light rain, as this storm system sits and spins just northeast of us. New Jersey's weather will stay generally inclement and damp and raw Thursday, but it will not necessarily rain all day. The same is true for Friday, as we eye one last round of showers late-day.

The big question now is whether it will get cold enough for the first snowflakes of the season to form. And I think they will, for at least the higher elevations of northwestern New Jersey (north of I-80 and west of I-287). That is the only section of the state prone to pick up snow accumulations Thursday night into Friday.

By the weekend, clearing skies and drier weather will prevail. But temperatures will be slow to warm — we will be stuck with below normal, December-ish air through at least early next week.

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Thursday

Everyone in New Jersey got wet last night. So you will have damp conditions through the morning commute. Be aware, after three months of dry weather and then downpours overnight, there is a lot of leaves, oil, and "gunk" on the roads. Things are extra slippery, so be careful.

For Thursday's forecast, we have to split the state into three pieces:

—North of I-78... Scattered light rain will be pretty persistent all day, making it more wet than not.

—From I-78 to Ocean/Burlington counties... Occasional showers are likely, but there will be breaks of dry weather.

—South Jersey... Mainly dry. A shower is possible, but so are peeks of sunshine.

No matter where you are, it will stay breezy and cool. Temperatures will be stuck in the 40s all day.

Well past sunset Thursday evening (after about 7 or 8 p.m.), temperatures among the higher elevations of NW NJ will likely dip cold enough for rain to mix with or switch to snow. This would be the Garden State's first flakes of the season.

Some models are still spitting out some impressive snowfall totals in and around Sussex County, New Jersey through Friday. Raw totals on the order of 4 to 8 inches. (With the cold GFS going as high as a foot — yikes!) But those totals are an estimation of what falls — not what sticks to the ground. I'm still not buying more than an inch or two of accumulation anywhere in the state. Although that would be enough to make for a wintry scene, and possibly cause slippery spots into Friday.

Friday

Also not a nice day. Although I think we will see a substantial lull in the wet/wintry for the first half of the day.

The storm system responsible for Thursday's wet weather will make one last rotation by New Jersey on Friday. And that will likely drive one final round of showers through the state in the afternoon and evening hours. (Some models show these showers going around New Jersey — but we would at least get clipped by them.)

The question is what kind of showers those would be. High temperatures on Friday will only reach the lower 40s — a chilly day. And remember, the middle atmosphere (the "snow growth" zone) is even colder, at or below freezing.

So there is a responsible chance for widespread light snow across the interior of New Jersey from this "grand finale" round of precipitation. In warmer areas, like urban centers and along the coast, it would just be rain. In any case, conditions would be mainly wet, not wintry — outside NW NJ, no accumulation or slippery travel issues are expected.

Saturday

Final showers will wrap up by daybreak Saturday. And then the weekend will feature clearing skies, drying weather, and slowly warming temperatures.

Saturday will definitely be brighter than both Thursday and Friday, with a mix of sun and clouds. But a cold westerly wind will blow, gusting over 25 mph. And high temperatures will only reach about 45 to 50 degrees.

Your outdoor activities will be fine. But you will want to bundle up a bit.

Sunday

Our weather will continue to improve Sunday. It will be partly sunny, with a stiff breeze (not as strong as Saturday's wind though.) High temperatures will climb to the lower 50s for most of the state.

The Extended Forecast

We'll likely see seasonable highs in the 50s for Monday and Tuesday, with a chance of a quick shower in the overnight hours. And then temperatures scale back to the 40s for Wednesday, the big pre-Thanksgiving getaway day.

I can not believe it is exactly one week until Thanksgiving Day. Long-range models do show a storm signal around the middle to late part of next week. Of course any poorly-timed storm system next week — rain, snow, or otherwise — could have significant impacts on travel, parades and more. I just want to mention it for now - we'll keep a close eye on it as the holiday approaches.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.