Three days of bitter cold for NJ, some snow to the south

The Bottom Line

The official start of Spring — the Vernal Equinox — is exactly 30 days away.

In other words? Winter ain't over yet! And boy, are we going to be feeling it this week, New Jersey.

Temperatures will be stuck below freezing for something like 90 hours. From now through sometime on Friday. Yes, I know it is supposed to be cold in the wintertime here in New Jersey. But this is 15 degrees below normal for mid-February — definitely unseasonable and definitely uncomfortable.

Although the wicked wind from the past couple days has subsided somewhat, it will remain in the "breezy" category Tuesday. Adding an extra bite to the cold air, of course.

Finally, there is only one chance of snow in the forecast, and it is a minor one. The Wednesday-Thursday storm did not "disappear" — it shifted 150 to 200 miles south. We will probably see some light snow around, along the southern coast late Wednesday and then more widespread showers early Thursday.

However, accumulations will be limited to an inch or two, at the most. I do not draw a detailed snow map for "inch or two" snowfall events, as travel impacts will generally be minor.

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Tuesday

Breezy and cold. And that's it!

Wind gusts on Sunday night peaked at 60 and even 70 mph. On Monday, we had regular gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range. And for Tuesday, the forecast is for top gusts between 20 and 30 mph. Better, but still adding a noticeable bite to the air.

We are starting the day with thermometers in the teens and 20s. High temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 20s Tuesday afternoon. Below freezing all day. And the biting wind chill ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) will be no higher than the teens.

The day will be bright and dry, with abundant sunshine and some fair-weather clouds.

Tuesday night will be very cold, of course. Look for lows in the teens and wind chills in the singles. Not quite reaching "dangerous cold" territory — but close.

Wednesday

While it once looked to become a snowy day, Wednesday will just be bitter and bleak.

Skies will become pretty cloudy by midday Wednesday. And high temperatures will only reach the upper 20s.

A storm system passing well south of New Jersey will likely clip our southern coastline with light snow starting around late afternoon. (In and around Cape May and Atlantic counties.)

All but one forecast model continue to trend toward a not-snowy scenario here. That's the NAM, which paints about a half-foot of snow accumulation over much of South Jersey. However, I have decided to throw out this outlier because 1.) it has not been consistent in throwing out moderate-major snowfall, 2.) the NAM's specialty is picking out mesoscale features (small in size and time scale) not synoptic (large-scale) shifts, and 3.) it is literally the only substantial snow solution out their among all model guidance.

It is reasonable to think that an inch or two of snow accumulation is possible along with slippery spots through Wednesday night. Again, limited to far southeastern New Jersey.

Thursday

Thursday morning, some snow showers may linger along the Jersey Shore, as that southern storm system swings out to sea.

In addition, another weak impulse coming in from the west could spark some snow showers on the other side of the state, to the north and west. Again, no big deal — just some flakes flying around. (Although the air may be too dry for anything.)

Otherwise, Thursday will be mostly cloudy and increasingly breezy. High temperatures will only reach about 30 degrees — another day in the freezer.

Friday

Friday marks the start of improving weather for the Garden State, as temperatures moderate and we get a multi-day break from storms.

Friday will be sunny, with highs in the mid 30s. Finally above freezing, but still below normal. And I can not guarantee the breeze will die down enough to make it a "pleasant" day.

The Extended Forecast

Saturday looks good, with sunshine and lower 40s.

Some clouds will build Sunday, but highs are forecast to hit the mid 40s.

Models show a return to inclement weather early next week, in the Monday-Tuesday time frame. At this time resolution, it could be snow, it could be rain (more likely), or it could be a little of both (most likely). As always, we will keep you posted.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.