Summerlike warmth builds for NJ — here’s when thunderstorms are most likely

The Bottom Line

Ready for a taste of summer weather? Friday and Saturday could be the warmest stretch of the season so far, with widespread 80s across New Jersey. It will be fairly humid too, although not to stifling or suffocating levels.

The other big story through the middle of next week: Occasional spurts of wet weather.

Every day between now and the middle of next week has a rain chance plugged in. But the nuance is important here - there will be more dry hours than wet ones. An isolated shower or thunderstorm Friday. Scattered strong storms late Saturday. And then a more widespread batch of rain for part of Sunday.

Over the course of the next week, we'll probably pick up about an inch or two of beneficial rain. It'll come in spurts, but will definitely help with fire danger and drought concerns. Some forecast models go as high as 4-plus inches — that scenario might be a little excessive, specifically in terms of flooding potential.

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Friday

The chance of rain is very limited Friday, as temperatures and humidity ramp up.

We are starting Friday morning in the 50s across most of the state. South Jersey has only fallen into the 60s. Comfortable and quiet.

Expect clouds mixed with sunshine throughout Friday — skies in the afternoon will likely be brighter than the morning. High temperatures will reach the lower to mid 80s — similar to a pleasant midsummer day.

A few showers tried to creep into New Jersey overnight, but fizzled out. There will be a chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm later on, in the late afternoon to early evening time frame. They will be isolated. Tiny, with the vast majority of NJ staying dry and storm-free. Any storm that does form in this warm, humid atmosphere could have some teeth — gusty downpours would be the big concern.

The rest of Friday night will be mainly clear, with temperatures not expected to fall below 60 degrees.

Saturday

The first weekend of May will begin with another summerlike day. The chance of rain — specifically strong thunderstorms — will be higher.

Expect partly sunny skies, moderate humidity, and warm temperatures peaking in the lower 80s.

Saturday looks dry through at least 3 or 4 p.m. Yes, most of the daytime hours will be just fine.

Then a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely fire up. Model guidance is having trouble deciding whether this is a widespread (statewide-ish) weather event, or whether it will be limited to one part of the state (northwest).

In either case, I am concerned that the ample heat and moisture in the atmosphere will fuel strong to severe storms, capable of producing gusty winds, downpours, and frequent lightning.

Bottom line for Saturday: You're a "go" for your outdoor activities through the morning and afternoon. But keep an eye on the sky later on — when thunder roars, head indoors.

Sunday

Sunday is iffy, and could be the most unsettled day of the bunch.

As it stands, I am favoring a dry start to Sunday with increasing clouds. And then rain chances ramp up again statewide from midday through the afternoon. Everyone in New Jersey probably gets wet for a time Sunday afternoon and/or evening.

Because of thicker clouds, rain, and a flip to an on-shore breeze, temperatures on Sunday will be cooler. Look for highs in the lower 70s or so.

The Extended Forecast

At the moment, I am thinking the forecast for early next week keeps our weather occasionally inclement. Cloudy with spotty showers on Monday. Pockets of steadier, if not heavier, rain on Tuesday. And then just an isolated shower on Wednesday, as a cold front dries things out. All along, daily high temperatures will reach about 70 degrees.

Of course, there's a lot of uncertainty and "give and take" baked into this forecast. We will refine and add detail to this forecast each day, as the situation becomes clearer and clearer.

Hopefully this is the drought-buster we have been hoping for. Hopefully the abundant pollen gets washed away too. Hopefully we avoid any significant severe weather and flooding. And hopefully our weather dries out and turns pleasant in time for next weekend — the big Mother's Day Weekend.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.