The Bottom Line
I love what I see over the next 4 or 5 days! After a stretch of cooler-than-normal weather, we’ll warm into the sweet, seasonable 70s by the weekend. With plenty of sunshine and light winds along the way.
The chance for a shower this weekend is not zero. But it’s close.
Normal high temperatures have now bumped to 72 degrees. We’ll end up about 5 degrees shy of that mark on Wednesday. But really, at this point, who cares! It’s going to be a nice spring day.
A storm system will deliver rain to Maryland, Virginia, and the Carolinas Wednesday. I believe it’s far enough south - and our atmosphere is dry enough - to miss out on substantial raindrops here in New Jersey. However, some extra clouds are inevitable along the southern coast, especially Wednesday morning.
Overall, it should be a mostly sunny day. With a light northwesterly breeze. And high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. (I was surprised to see we hit 70 in a couple spots on Tuesday - the same will be true on Wednesday too.)
Wednesday night will be cool and clear again. You will almost certainly want a jacket, with lows bottoming out in the mid 40s.
As an area of high pressure - that’s a dome of sinking area - protects our atmosphere from the west, we’ll stay in a very nice slice of the atmosphere.
Bright and sunny. Nice and dry. And a return to mild temperatures. Highs should pop to around 70 degrees.
The only big question is just how warm the coast will get, with a cool sea breeze likely. Hopefully we’ll see pleasant 60s. Although barrier islands might get stuck in the 50s - considerably cooler and less fantastic than just a few miles island.
Both the NAM and GFS models paint an isolated shower over New Jersey late-day. But I’m not buying it, given our very dry atmosphere (dew points in the 30s). So I’m still leaving the shower mention out of my on-air forecast for now - we can always add it in later.
There could be a few spotty showers around. The best chances of raindrops will be Saturday afternoon and Sunday night.
Having said that, confidence is growing that the vast majority of New Jersey will stay bone-dry throughout the weekend.
Saturday looks partly sunny, with highs in the lower to (maybe) mid 70s.
Sunday will be cloudier. And a couple degrees cooler, but still seasonable in the lower 70s.
The Extended Forecast
Our next chance of widespread rain is forecast to arrive on Monday. As an area of low pressure tracks directly over New Jersey, it could be quite the wet, cloudy, and cool day.
The latest long-term models show somewhat unsettled, but warm weather through the middle of next week. 80+ degrees is a possibility, becoming even more likely as we enter the final full week of May.