Rain could disrupt Thanksgiving travel and outdoor plans for NJ

The Bottom Line

Just like that, our weather flipped from mild and dry to cold and stormy. Let's keep this active forecast in perspective — it is a very good thing, as we need a lot more rain to fully recover from this fall's dire rainfall deficit and spiraling drought concerns.

There are actually two chances of precipitation coming up this week. The first one, Tuesday morning, will be a quick burst of wet weather. Followed by a stiff breeze and a little cooldown. The second one, Thursday, will be more impactful. Just like last week, pockets of steady are possible. The timing is the worst part, coinciding with Thanksgiving Day.

At the moment, the Thanksgiving storm system looks like a rainmaker for New Jersey. But cold air will be close enough to warrant a raised eyebrow for some wintry potential.

Given the potential for disruptions to travel, parades, football games, outdoor cooking, shopping, and more, it's going to be a busy week dialing in the forecast details. Let's dive in to what we know so far.

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Monday

All in all, this abbreviated workweek begins with a pleasant late November day.

It is chilly to start, with temperatures in the 30s (inland) and 40s (coast). We should enjoy nice, bright skies throughout the day — I'll call it mostly sunny. Clouds will start to build around the late afternoon hours.

High temperatures will reach the mid 50s. Close to or just above normal for late November. Can't complain about that.

The daytime hours look dry. I can't rule out a spot shower creeping into New Jersey Monday evening. The better chance of impending rain will hold off until about daybreak. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the mid 40s or so — notably above the freezing mark.

Tuesday

Everybody in New Jersey will get wet. On the order of a quarter-inch. It will be scattered and light. And all liquid, nothing frozen.

Best timing for raindrops will be about 5 a.m. to Noon.

This rain will be driven by a cold front. So, as our new air mass arrives in the afternoon, skies will clear quickly accompanied by a brisk wind. Gusts may exceed 20 mph for a few hours.

Temperatures are tricky on Tuesday. While we should see upper 50s in the morning, thermometers may start to slide backward through the day.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be another dry day. Good, quiet weather for one of the busiest travel days of the year.

It will be colder though. High temperatures will only reach about 50 degrees. Morning sunshine will erode by clouds through the afternoon. Winds will be very close to the "breezy" category too.

Thanksgiving Day

Your turkey is going to get wet this year. A broad storm system will drive periods of steady rain through New Jersey during the daytime hours on Thursday. Prime time for rain will be about 4 a.m. to 4 p.m.

Please note my 5 Day Forecast does not include an "alert" icon for Thursday, indicating the possibility of hazardous weather. Winds will stay relatively light. Severe and wintry weather chances are limited. And again, rain will not be terribly heavy. Rainfall totals will probably exceed a half-inch. Still pretty wet though.

Cold air will be very close to New Jersey as the rain falls. I do believe limited wintry mix is possible in northwestern New Jersey — that usual "coldest corner" of the state, north of I-80 and west of I-287. I would even go so far as suggesting slippery spots and light accumulations are possible. But take that call with a grain of road salt for now.

Temperatures will only be in the 40s for the duration. Those are going to be some uncomfortably chilly raindrops.

Black Friday

A shower may linger to about daybreak Friday. And then expect partial clearing.

As Friday dries out, temperatures will go nowhere. Highs again in the mid to upper 40s and a stiff breeze will have you reaching for a good jacket all day.

The Extended Forecast

The upcoming weekend will feature another infusion of cold air, leading to some of the coldest days of the season so far.

Saturday's high temperatures are forecast to only reach the lower 40s. Plus, a stiff westerly breeze will add an extra bite to the chill.

If that wind is strong enough, it could pick up enough moisture to spark a snow flurry or snow squall. Best chance for that would be northern New Jersey. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny.

Sunday is the start of December. And it sure is going to feel like December. Highs will only reach around 40 degrees — that is "dead of winter" kind of cold.

Below-normal temperatures are likely to continue through the first week of December too. I do not see any significant storm systems in view. But of course, we will keep you posted.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.